Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Asia Economics Use setting Emerging Asia Economics
The Philippines (BSP) cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% today and with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain well within the BSP’s target, we expect more easing later this year. Today’s decision to cut was correctly predicted by …
6th February 2020
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to spread, we think more easing is likely. We have …
5th February 2020
Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which Indonesia will be affected is falling commodity prices …
A period of prolonged factory closures in China as the authorities struggle to contain the coronavirus would cause significant disruption to the rest of the region and is another reason why growth in Emerging Asia looks set to slow sharply this quarter. A …
3rd February 2020
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) unexpectedly cut interest rates today but given our view that the rupee will come under downward pressure again this year, the scope for further loosening is limited. The CBSL’s decision to cut both its deposit and …
30th January 2020
A sharp fall in Chinese tourist arrivals will hit economic growth in Emerging Asia hard this quarter. The impact will be even more severe if the disruption spreads to the region’s industrial sectors. At least initially, the main channel through which the …
28th January 2020
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 5.0% but kept the door open to further cuts. With the economy struggling, inflationary pressures low and the rupiah continuing to appreciate against the US dollar, we think further easing is …
23rd January 2020
The legislation that President Joko Widodo has presented to parliament, which includes proposals to cut red tape, lower taxes and free up the labour market, would form the basis of any foreign investor’s wish list. However, with opposition to the reforms …
22nd January 2020
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, and with growth set to slow further over the next couple of quarters, we think the central bank will ease policy again later this year. Only two of the 26 analysts polled by …
Fears are growing about the spread of a newly-identified coronavirus across Asia. In this Update we discuss the likely implications for the region’s economies. Stock markets across the region fell today as fears over the spread of the virus escalated. It …
21st January 2020
In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. One of the main political events of the year has …
20th January 2020
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left policy unchanged today, but with the economy struggling for momentum and price pressures set to remain weak, we expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle later this year. Today’s decision marks the second consecutive meeting …
17th January 2020
The signing of the Phase One trade deal is unlikely to spell the end of the trade war, and the disruption it has caused to Asian supply chains looks set to continue. On the plus side, the deal reduces the chances of an escalation in the near term, and if …
16th January 2020
The initial estimate of Q4 GDP suggests Singapore’s economy remains in the doldrums. However, the numbers are based on preliminary data from only the first two months of the quarter and are not normally a good guide to the final reading. According to …
2nd January 2020
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 5.0% but, with growth set to remain weak and the rupiah holding up well, we think further easing is likely in the new year. Having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp so far this year, the central …
19th December 2019
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged today, but further rate cuts are likely next year. Having cut interest rates twice this year already (in August and November) today’s decision to leave rates unchanged at 1.25% came as no surprise, …
18th December 2019
The Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, but with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain below the mid-point of the BSP’s target, we expect more easing next year. Today’s decision to leave the main policy rate on …
12th December 2019
The peso has rebounded over the past year due in large part to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit. But with the deficit set to widen again next year as infrastructure spending picks up, the currency is likely to come under renewed downward …
9th December 2019
Inflation in the Philippines rose last month for the first time since May and is set to climb higher over the coming year. However, with inflation set to remain low by past standards, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will loosen policy …
5th December 2019
Recently published figures showing a further fall in the fertility rate in Korea underline the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The worsening demographic outlook is the key reason why we expect trend growth in Korea to slow …
2nd December 2019
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left rates on hold today but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to stay subdued and inflation likely to remain weak, we have pencilled in one more 25bp rate cut for early 2020. Today’s decision to leave the main …
29th November 2019
A sharp rise in the US dollar assets of Taiwanese life insurance companies poses a major threat to the health of the country’s financial sector and could also have consequences for the stability of the global financial system. A key cause of previous …
25th November 2019
GDP growth was either flat or picked up slightly in most parts of Emerging Asia last quarter, and we think regional growth will rise gradually over the coming year helped by a slow recovery in exports and looser fiscal and monetary policy. All of the …
22nd November 2019
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged, but the cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and dovish comments from Governor Perry Warjiyo suggest that further interest rate cuts are likely. The decision by Indonesia’s central bank to …
21st November 2019
A sharp fall in the rupee and a series of aggressive interest rate hikes has led to a welcome fall in Pakistan’s external imbalances. However, with growth slowing sharply and inflation close to multi-year highs, the country is not out of the woods yet. …
20th November 2019
Asian export growth should start to pick up over the coming months. However, the recovery will mainly reflect a more favourable base for comparison following the collapse in electronics exports at the end of last year, than an improvement in underlying …
19th November 2019
It was no surprise that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, and it is unlikely to adjust rates at its December meeting either. But with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain subdued, we …
14th November 2019
There is no immediate threat of any country in Emerging Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation, but persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for central banks and will tip the balance towards more easing over the coming …
13th November 2019
GDP growth in Sri Lanka is likely to remain weak whichever of the two main candidates wins the presidential election on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s presidential election will take place on 16 th November. A record 35 candidates have filed nominations for …
12th November 2019
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its key policy rate to 1.25% today, and with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank will loosen policy again next year. Today’s decision was …
6th November 2019
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% today, but with growth set to slow sharply over the next few quarters and inflation likely to remain subdued, we think the central bank will ease policy again early next year. 16 of the 25 …
5th November 2019
Further progress towards the establishment of what would be the world’s biggest trade deal, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), is expected over the weekend. Given the protectionist threat facing Asia, a deal would provide a boost to …
31st October 2019
The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. But regardless of what the US Treasury decides, the protectionist threat from the US is unlikely to go away. …
24th October 2019
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates again today and signalled that its main priority remains supporting the struggling economy. However, if the rupiah starts to drop back against the US dollar over the coming months as we expect, then we could be …
There have been suggestions that the Bank of Korea (BoK) might soon need to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being tried by the world’s major central banks. However, evidence from other countries that have tried quantitative …
23rd October 2019
Early indicators suggest that GDP growth stabilised across Emerging Asia last quarter. While we think the worst is now over for the region, the recovery will be slow going. Countries in Emerging Asia are among the first in the world to publish national …
21st October 2019
The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% today and with growth set to remain subdued and price pressures likely to remain very weak, we are expecting more easing next year. Today’s decision followed the first rate cut in three years …
16th October 2019
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today and given the current weakness of the economy – GDP figures also published today show growth in year-on-year terms held steady at a ten-year low – monetary policy is likely to remain …
14th October 2019
Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that the US will introduce tariffs on its imports from …
30th September 2019
Today’s cut to the policy rate by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) from 4.25% to 4.00% is unlikely to be the last in the easing cycle. With growth likely to disappoint and price pressures set to remain subdued, we expect more cuts in the coming …
26th September 2019
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today, but with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank will loosen policy again before the end of the year. …
25th September 2019
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its key policy rate unchanged today at 1.375%, and with growth picking up we doubt it will be in any rush to join the region’s rate cutting cycle. We expect interest rates to be left on hold until at least the end of next …
19th September 2019
Sri Lanka’s economy held up better than we had expected last quarter given the drag from the recent terrorist attacks on the country. But we suspect that the published figures overstate the real strength of the economy. With the tourist sector likely to …
Today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly signals that its main priority at the moment is supporting the struggling economy. While we think further easing is likely, the central bank is likely to tread cautiously over the coming months. The rate …
Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today is something of a surprise given that growth appears to be holding up well at the moment. Given the decent outlook for the economy, we don’t think the central bank will rush into cutting rates again soon. The …
13th September 2019
The dovish statement which accompanied today’s decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave its policy rate on hold at 3.00% suggests that the central bank is leaving the door open to further easing. We are sticking with our forecast that the Bank will …
12th September 2019
Yesterday’s announcement by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam that the government will withdraw the controversial extradition bill that sparked the current political crisis has raised hopes that tensions in the territory will start to subside. But …
5th September 2019
The Bank of Korea sounded more bearish on the outlook for the economy even as it left rates on hold today. As such, we continue to expect more easing this year, with another 25bps cut in October. Today’s decision followed the first rate cut in three years …
30th August 2019
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. Today’s decision by the CBSL to cut both its deposit and lending rate …
23rd August 2019
Despite the recent weakness of the rupiah, Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive month to 5.50% and hinted that further easing is on the horizon. But the uncertain outlook for the currency means any further …
22nd August 2019