Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Asia Economics Use setting Emerging Asia Economics
Taiwan’s economy is struggling with severe capacity constraints but there are few signs in recent data that this is fuelling broad-based wage or price pressure. That’s a stark contrast with the US, and should provide some reassurance to central bankers …
10th June 2021
Despite the worsening virus situation and the announcement of a “total lockdown”, Malaysia’s economy is likely to hold up relatively well, as booming exports offset the hit to private consumption. We are only nudging down our GDP growth forecast for this …
31st May 2021
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few quarters. But concerns about financial stability are …
27th May 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect interest rates to remain low to support the recovery for some considerable time. The …
25th May 2021
Taiwan’s economy is being buffeted by several apparently unconnected shocks – a drought, power outages and an outbreak of COVID-19. But they are all linked to severe capacity shortages resulting from the extraordinary strength of global electronics …
21st May 2021
Social distancing and the imposition of new restrictions in response to a surge in infections are weighing on economic activity across the region. But with manufacturing and construction sites remaining open, and online spending offsetting at least some …
20th May 2021
The first major outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan has triggered the first significant restrictions on activity. Consumer spending will suffer, but the rest of the economy should still perform strongly. Having made it through most of the last year without a …
17th May 2021
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while a temporary rise in inflation means interest rates are set to remain unchanged for the next few months, the dire economic outlook means the central bank …
12th May 2021
The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the worsening economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and fitful, we think BNM will leave interest rates at …
6th May 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold at 0.5% today and sounded very downbeat on the prospects for the recovery. The poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain unchanged well beyond the end of the year. The decision …
5th May 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today, and despite the downbeat outlook for the economy we see little room for further rate cuts this year. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all 35 analysts polled by Bloomberg, …
20th April 2021
The US Treasury today held off from labelling Taiwan and Vietnam currency manipulators in its semi-annual report, despite them both meeting all three criteria officially laid down by the Treasury. Talks will now begin, but we doubt they will lead to a …
16th April 2021
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has some way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for the rest of 2021. The decision to hold was unanimous and expected by all 20 …
15th April 2021
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced Q1 GDP data showed the economy rebounded further. While GDP is set to continue recovering at a decent pace, a persistent output gap is likely to remain, keeping a lid on …
14th April 2021
The unveiling of Vietnam’s new leadership team earlier this week contained no new surprises, and we are not expecting any significant changes in policy direction. The economy is well-placed to meet the 6.5%-7.0% growth target that was unveiled as part of …
6th April 2021
Rapidly rising property prices have become a big political issue in Korea, but they don’t pose a significant threat to the economy. In February, property prices across Korea rose by 10% y/y – the fastest increase since 2007. Increases in Seoul, which is …
Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures very weak, interest rates are likely to be kept low to …
30th March 2021
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while a temporary rise in inflation means interest rates are set to remain on hold for the next few months, the dire economic outlook means the Bank is still …
25th March 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold at 0.5% today and made clear in its accompanying statement that rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. We think the that the policy rate will remain unchanged until at least the end of next …
24th March 2021
As vaccines are rolled out across the world and restrictions on economic activity are removed, we expect global consumption patterns to return to something like normal. Electronics exporters, most notably Taiwan and Vietnam, are likely to lose out. …
22nd March 2021
Taiwan’s central bank appears in little hurry to raise interest rates despite the strong performance of the economy, and today’s decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.125% came as no surprise. With growth set to ease and inflation low, we …
18th March 2021
Recent volatility in financial markets meant Bank Indonesia (BI) was never likely to cut interest rates for a second consecutive month at its meeting today, and further rate cuts look off the agenda for the time being. However, fears of a repeat of the …
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, and we have taken out the cut we had pencilled in for this year. However, with the economic recovery likely to be slow, policy is set to remain loose for a long time to come . 19 …
4th March 2021
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left policy on hold today amid continued volatility in global financial markets. Given the poor outlook for the economy, the CBSL will want to resume its easing cycle soon, but that will only happen if pressure on the …
The outlook for Pakistan’s economy is improving. Low virus cases, an easing of restrictions and a jump in the most recent activity data are prompting us to revise up our growth forecast for this year. Pakistan has recorded a daily average of just 1,300 …
2nd March 2021
Fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” look wide of the mark. But even if there was a return to the financial market turmoil of eight years ago, Asian economies are much better placed to cope. Government bond yields in the US have continued to rise …
25th February 2021
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today in a unanimous decision, and while further rate cuts are now very unlikely, we expect more intervention in the government bond market to curb rising long-term yields. The decision to …
Asia’s vaccine rollout has got off to a slow start. This is not a big concern in countries that have contained the virus and where social distancing is not a drag on growth such as Taiwan and China. But in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, the slow …
23rd February 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its main policy rate by 25bps to 3.50% and revised down its forecast for the coming year. The central bank, however, also noted the room for rate cuts was “getting limited”. On balance we expect one more 25bp rate cut, most …
18th February 2021
Singapore today unveiled a budget that will keep fiscal policy loose for the coming fiscal year (April 2021-March 2022), while also attempting to address some of the long-term challenges facing the economy. The budget deficit is projected to narrow from …
16th February 2021
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, and while rising inflation means further easing isn’t likely in the near term, we still expect the central bank to cut interest rates later this year. Today’s …
11th February 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today and sounded more downbeat about the prospects for growth this year. The poor outlook for the economy means that interest rates are likely to remain very low …
3rd February 2021
Myanmar’s biggest investors and trading partners are its neighbours, notably China, which won’t respond to yesterday’s coup with sanctions. But the economic consequences could still be significant if the EU and the US tightened restrictions on the …
2nd February 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but we doubt this marks the end of the central bank’s easing cycle. With the economic recovery struggling, inflation below target and the currency holding up well against the US …
21st January 2021
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the country once again in lockdown following a surge in COVID-19 cases, we think that the Bank will eventually be forced into action. Of the 23 analysts polled by …
20th January 2021
In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. Later this …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today in a unanimous decision, and with signs that the latest virus outbreak is coming under control, further rate cuts seem unlikely this year. Korea’s third wave of the virus had …
15th January 2021
The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021 from 10% to 7%. We also now expect the central bank to …
12th January 2021
Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why we expect trend growth in Korea to slow sharply over …
5th January 2021
The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% today came as no surprise, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain at their current low level until at least the end of …
23rd December 2020
The decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.125% came as no surprise given the strong performance of the economy. We expect interest rates to be left unchanged over the coming year. Today’s decision was correctly …
17th December 2020
Indonesia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged today, but given the poor outlook for growth, further easing is likely early next year. The decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% came as no real surprise – 24 of the …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its key policy rate on hold today at 2.0%, but the weakness of the recovery means further easing is likely. The pause was no surprise. All 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected no change, including …
The US Treasury’s decision to label Vietnam a currency manipulator today is primarily a response to the surge in Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US. The next step is likely to be talks – with Vietnam likely to promise to increase imports from the US and …
16th December 2020
The Korean government is on the verge of introducing much tighter restrictions to stem the rise in coronavirus cases. We are not cutting our GDP growth forecasts yet, but the risks are now clearly to the downside. Daily new confirmed cases of coronavirus …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% in a unanimous decision, and with the economy set to rebound further in spite of a growing third wave of the coronavirus, further easing seems unlikely in the months ahead. Instead, rates …
26th November 2020
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its main policy rate today by 25bps to 3.75%, and further gradual easing is likely provided the currency continues to perform well against the US dollar. Of the 26 economists polled by Bloomberg, 14 expected rates to remain …
19th November 2020
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut its key policy rate today for the first time since June, and the weakness of the recovery means further easing is likely. Today’s 25bp cut takes the policy rate to just 2.0% - a fresh all-time low. The BSP has …
The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at an all-time low of just 0.5% came as no surprise. Given the poor outlook for the economy, rates are likely to remain very low for a long time to come. The recent strength of the …
18th November 2020
Talks to establish the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), are finally expected to conclude at the weekend. While a deal would provide a boost to sentiment, the direct economic benefits would be …
12th November 2020