Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Asia Economics Use setting Emerging Asia Economics
Manufacturing PMIs and timely trade data reveal that Asia’s export-focussed industry gained momentum at the turn of the year. While the Omicron variant presents a key threat to the outlook, it is unlikely to cause nearly as much disruption to industry as …
4th January 2022
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5% and hinted in its statement that it was in little rush to tighten monetary policy. The setback to the tourism sector caused by the spread of Omicron means rates are likely to remain at …
22nd December 2021
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125% and despite rising inflation, surging property prices and the strong economy, we don’t think policymakers will be in any rush to tighten policy. Today’s decision was unanimous and …
16th December 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and despite the prospect of the US Fed raising interest rates soon, we don’t think BI will be in any rush to tighten. The decision to leave rates unchanged came as no surprise …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, and with inflation set to ease further over the coming months we think the central bank will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future. Today’s decision …
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by a further 100bp, which came as little surprise. What was unexpected, however, was the sudden shift in tone in the statement. Despite the worsening inflation outlook and the widening external …
14th December 2021
Inflationary pressures in the Philippines are easing sharply. This will allow the central bank to keep interest rates low to support the economic recovery. Inflation in the Philippines has been something of a regional outlier, having remained stubbornly …
7th December 2021
We expect the Bank of Korea to continue raising interest rates next year, but the worsening near-term prospects for growth mean the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear cut. Recent economic data from Korea make for disappointing reading. The …
6th December 2021
Asian economies, like those elsewhere, have adapted to living with COVID-19 restrictions so that the impact of any tightening would be smaller than it was last year. And unlike in many EMs, there is still room for fiscal and monetary policy to be …
2nd December 2021
Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a renewed surge in COVID infections in Vietnam deserves close …
1st December 2021
Today’s move by the Bank of Korea is likely to mark the second hike of at least five, in a tightening cycle that began in August and will extend well into next year. The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to hike its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% was well …
25th November 2021
Taiwan export orders dropped back in October, but the big picture is that they are down only slightly over the past few months and remain at an elevated level. Looking ahead, we expect demand to weaken, but a backlog of unmet orders means shortages will …
22nd November 2021
Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised interest rates by an aggressive 150bp and with inflation set to remain above target and the currency likely to come under further downward pressure, further hikes are likely over the coming months. While the …
19th November 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and appeared to signal that policy rates would remain unchanged for some time yet. A large output gap and weak inflation mean the central bank is in no hurry to follow other EM central banks …
18th November 2021
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to remain low for a long time to come. The decision came as no …
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. Today’s decision was unanimous, and the outcome was correctly predicted by all 21 …
10th November 2021
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate unchanged at 1.75% today, and with inflation set to remain subdued, rates are likely to stay on hold at their current all-time low throughout next year. We think financial markets are getting well …
3rd November 2021
Asian exports have continued to grow rapidly despite the recent disruption stemming from lockdowns in South East Asia. A huge backlog of orders and low inventory levels in advanced economies mean that exports are likely to continue to climb steadily …
2nd November 2021
Taiwan export orders rose in September, indicating that demand for Asian electronics remains strong. We expect final demand to weaken over the coming months, but shortages are likely to persist for some time to come. Taiwan’s export orders deserve close …
20th October 2021
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding but inflation set to stay low, we think interest rates will be left on hold …
19th October 2021
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened policy today, as it looked past the lacklustre rebound in GDP last quarter and looked to curb further rises in inflation. Core inflation is unlikely to rise substantially next year, even as the recovery …
14th October 2021
After leaving rates on hold today, the Bank of Korea gave strong signals of its intent to hike again in November. And given the Bank’s hawkish comments, we are adding another rate hike into our forecast for next year, bringing the total to a further 75bps …
12th October 2021
Korean consumer prices saw another strong m/m rise last month, and while we don’t think this is a major cause for concern it still adds weight to our view that the central bank will hike rates again later this year. Data released today show that while the …
6th October 2021
With cases of COVID-19 in Vietnam falling sharply and the government easing restrictions, factories are starting to reopen, and the latest data suggest the worst is now over for the country’s manufacturing sector. However, with backlogs of work mounting …
5th October 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and we have taken out the rate cut we originally had pencilled in for this year. However, rate hikes are still a long way off. Unlike the central bank’s August meeting when two of the …
29th September 2021
Taiwan export orders dipped back again in August, suggesting that demand for Asian electronics goods may have peaked. However, with demand still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to remain a constraint on global manufacturing for some …
24th September 2021
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125%, and we think policymakers will be in little rush to start tightening policy despite the strong economy. Today’s decision was unanimous and was correctly predicted by all 25 …
23rd September 2021
The fact that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, despite the very weak state of the economy, suggests further easing is unlikely. While we are now taking out the cuts we had pencilled into our …
Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, ongoing travel restrictions and the spread of the more infectious Delta variant mean that tourism will continue to struggle. This …
22nd September 2021
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding on the back of a fall in virus cases but the rupiah holding up well, we think …
21st September 2021
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by 25bp and made clear further tightening is likely as the central bank shifts its focus away from supporting the recovery and towards boosting the currency. We expect more rate hikes over the …
20th September 2021
Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to muddle through for the next few months, it faces a crunch …
16th September 2021
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, and won’t be in any rush to adjust rates soon. Although the economy should start to rebound now that virus restrictions are being eased, output is likely to remain below potential for …
9th September 2021
Singapore’s decision to reimpose some restrictions despite the country’s rapid vaccine rollout raises questions about its long-term strategy of living with COVID-19. The government’s caution will hold back the recovery in the near term, and its recent …
8th September 2021
We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given the hawkish comments in the press conference, we now …
26th August 2021
There are growing signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. Despite this, supply shortages look set to persist for some time amid growing evidence that surging virus cases across South East Asia are causing disruption to the region’s …
20th August 2021
Malaysia’s new prime minister, Ismail Sabri Yaakob, takes over an economy poised to rebound strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic. But the new government looks ill-equipped to deal with the many long-term challenges facing the country. Ismail was today …
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) hiked interest rates today to help support the currency. With the rupee likely to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, further rate hikes are likely. The decision to raise the deposit and lending …
19th August 2021
Bank Indonesia left its main policy rate on hold at 3.50% today, and signalled that rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future. We think the policy rate will remain unchanged until at least the end of next year. The decision came as no …
The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are likely soon. The BSP has kept the policy rate on hold so far this year after …
12th August 2021
The worsening prospects for the Thai economy and the shift in the current account from a huge surplus to a sizeable deficit mean the Thai baht is likely to weaken further over the coming year. The baht has fallen again over the past week and is now down …
6th August 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 0.5% today as expected. Given the deteriorating outlook for the economy and with two of the six MPC members voting for a rate cut, we now think the central bank will loosen policy further this …
4th August 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged today at 3.5%, and despite the worsening near-term outlook caused by a surge in COVID-19 cases, the central bank made clear further cuts are unlikely. We expect interest rates to remain unchanged until the …
22nd July 2021
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and signalled that a rate hike is still very much on the table this year. While the worsening virus situation has made things more uncertain, comments from the press conference …
15th July 2021
The fact that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate on hold at 1.75% today despite the poor economic outlook means any further loosening is unlikely. But with the recovery set to be slow and fitful, we think BNM will leave interest rates at …
8th July 2021
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are only a few months away. The BSP has been on hold so far this year after …
24th June 2021
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged at their all-time low of just 0.5%, dovish comments from the press conference support our view that rates will be on hold for a long time to come. Interest rates have now been left unchanged …
23rd June 2021
There are tentative signs that global demand for Asian consumer goods has peaked. But with demand for key components still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to persist for some time to come. Taiwan’s export orders deserve close attention …
21st June 2021
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.125% despite the booming economy. With inflation relatively subdued and the currency at multi-year highs against the US dollar, we suspect the CBC will be in little hurry to start …
17th June 2021
Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect rates to remain low to support the recovery for some considerable time. The decision …