Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Asia Economics Use setting Emerging Asia Economics
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to leave the overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.0% came as no surprise. Despite the poor near term outlook for economic growth, …
7th September 2023
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged (5.75%) but with inflation set to remain well within target and the economy weak, we expect BI to cut interest rates before the end of 2023. Today’s decision came as no surprise and was …
24th August 2023
On hold again but rate cuts likely in the coming months The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fifth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. The central bank is due to hold a press conference and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflationary pressures in Singapore eased in July but despite the good news on inflation we now think the central bank will keep policy on hold at its October meeting. Higher …
23rd August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economic growth slowed sharply in Thailand during Q2 and we are revising down our full-year GDP forecast for 2023. With inflation likely to remain low and the economic recovery …
21st August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economic growth accelerated in Q2 but we expect a slowdown in the second half of the year as external demand weakens and elevated interest rates curtail domestic demand. …
18th August 2023
Rate cuts unlikely before 2024 The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged (6.25%) for a third consecutive meeting and, although the economy weakened markedly in Q2, elevated core inflation and upside inflationary risks …
17th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. …
10th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Official figures show Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter of the year, slightly higher than the 5.0% growth rate recorded in Q1. In contrast, our own …
7th August 2023
Hold does not mark the end of the tightening cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 22.0%), but we doubt this marks the end of the tightening cycle. With inflation likely to remain above target for some …
31st July 2023
This article has been updated with additional analysis and charts since it was first published. Taiwan GDP (Q2) Taiwan’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of the year, driven by a jump in exports and strong consumer spending. However, we …
28th July 2023
Inflation back to target, rate cuts likely later this year Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 5.75%, but with the economy struggling and inflation falling back, we think the central bank will cut interest rates before the end of …
25th July 2023
Headline GDP number masks underlying weakness in demand GDP growth in Korea picked up slightly in Q2 but the underlying data suggest that elevated interest rates and weak external demand are taking their toll on the economy. We expect the economy to …
Weak outturn, bleak outlook The economy avoided a technical recession in Q2 but we continue to expect growth to come in well below consensus this year as elevated interest rates and weaker external demand weigh heavily on economic output. According to the …
14th July 2023
BoK on hold again but conditions now in place for a cut The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fourth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. The central bank is due to hold a press conference and …
13th July 2023
BNM to sit on the sidelines Malaysia’s central bank today left interest rates unchanged at 3.0%, and we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle. But unlike other central banks in the region that are set to cut interest rates over the coming …
6th July 2023
With inflation back to target, rate cuts likely to come soon Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep interest rates unchanged today at 5.75% came as no surprise and was correctly predicted by all 34 analysts polled by Reuters. With the economy struggling …
22nd June 2023
Philippines Monetary Policy Meeting (June) Tightening cycle at an end, rate cuts early next year The central bank in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) for a second consecutive meeting. While it gave no clear guidance over its …
More easing coming in Vietnam Vietnam’s central bank today announced a further 50bps cut to the refinancing rate (to 4.5%) as it aims to support the struggling economy. With inflation on the way down and growth set to remain weak, further cuts are likely …
16th June 2023
Stage set for rate cuts later in the year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today kept its main policy rate unchanged (at 1.875%), but with the economy struggling and price pressures set to ease further, we expect the central bank to start cutting interest …
15th June 2023
Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 2.0%, today but given the relatively benign outlook for inflation we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle. In the accompanying statement to today’s …
31st May 2023
Falling inflation to open the door for early rate cut Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%) as was widely expected. With inflation falling and growth easing, we think there is a good chance the central bank could cut …
25th May 2023
On hold again, first cut likely in August The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%) for a third consecutive meeting, but we don’t think it will be long before the central bank starts cutting interest rates. With inflation falling …
Tightening cycle at an end The central bank in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) but stated it was ready to resume its tightening cycle later in the year. However, with inflation falling back and headwinds to the economy …
18th May 2023
Economic recovery underway Thailand’s election has dominated the headlines over the past 24 hours and we will have more to say on the economic implications later in the day, but GDP figures released just now show the economy bounced back strongly in the …
15th May 2023
Partial rebound, bleak outlook for the year The economy expanded in Q1 but failed to completely offset the decline from Q4, as we had expected. Economic growth is likely to remain weak over the coming quarters as elevated interest rates and weak external …
12th May 2023
Economy set to struggle in 2023 Economic growth slowed in Q1 and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of elevated interest rates and weak global demand. According to the advanced estimate published today, GDP …
11th May 2023
Growth likely to slow ahead The economy grew by 5.03% y/y in the first quarter of the year, which was almost the same pace of expansion as that in Q4 2022 (5.01%), but we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as tight monetary policy and weaker …
5th May 2023
Surprise hike, but no more tightening in 2023 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate today by 25bps (to 3.0%), citing the resilient economy as grounds to “further normalise the degree of monetary accommodation”. However, …
3rd May 2023
Economy in recession, weak recovery ahead Taiwan’s GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter of the year, as a slump in exports put the economy into a technical recession. We think the economy will struggle over the coming quarters as weak external …
28th April 2023
High interest rates and weak external demand to weigh on prospects GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. Our …
25th April 2023
On hold for the rest of the year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%), and appeared to signal that further rate increases this year were unlikely. With inflation falling and growth easing, we expect interest rates to be …
18th April 2023
MAS keeps policy unchanged while GDP contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to …
14th April 2023
On hold again, first cut likely in August The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged (3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and we don’t think it will be long before rate cuts come onto the agenda. With the economy struggling badly and …
11th April 2023
Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its main policy rate today by 25bps, to 1.75%. While most analysts expect at least one more hike we think a sharp drop in inflation will allow the central bank to hold fire and that this marks …
29th March 2023
Economic activity to remain weak this year Economic growth in Vietnam slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2023 and we expect economic activity to remain weak this year given the challenging external demand backdrop and the lagged impact of monetary …
Surprise hike, but cuts still likely in H2 In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think this was …
23rd March 2023
More tightening still to come The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end. Although inflation has now …
No more hikes this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%), and signalled that further rate increases this year were unlikely. The rupiah has held up relatively well over the past week despite the turmoil in global …
16th March 2023
Rates set to remain on hold in 2023 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%) and stated again that it would continue to take time to monitor the impact of past rate hikes before deciding if further tightening was …
9th March 2023
Cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%), bringing an end to the country’s tightening cycle. With the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further over the coming …
23rd February 2023
Tourism to drive recovery after fall in Q4 GDP Thailand’s economy contracted sharply in the final quarter of last year as a strong recovery in the tourism sector was unable to compensate for weakness elsewhere. Looking beyond the weak fourth quarter …
17th February 2023
No more hikes this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its main policy rate unchanged today (at 5.75%), and signalled that further rate increases this year were unlikely. This supports our view that the tightening cycle has now come to an end. We expect the …
16th February 2023
More tightening still to come The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today raised its main policy rate by a further 50bps (to 6.00%), and we think more tightening is likely in the near term amid worries about high inflation. The decision was in line …
Economy set to struggle over the coming quarters The economy contracted sharply in the final quarter of last year and we think it will remain weak in the coming quarters as elevated interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag …
10th February 2023
Further slowdown likely Economic growth in Indonesia slowed in the final quarter of last year and further weakness is likely as weak global demand, high inflation and elevated interest rates drag on activity. Today’s figures show that the economy expanded …
6th February 2023
Growth set to weaken in 2023 Growth slowed in Q4, and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of weak global demand, high interest rates and elevated inflation. According to the advanced estimate published …
26th January 2023
Difficult year ahead Economic output fell in the final quarter of 2022, and we think the economy will continue to struggle over the coming year as high interest rates and weak overseas demand weigh on prospects. Our 2023 growth forecasts are well below …
25th January 2023
More tightening still to come The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.50%), and hinted that the tightening cycle still has further to run. The decision was correctly predicted by 21 out of the 23 economists polled by …
Rates set to stay on hold in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) kept interest rates unchanged today and we expect it to leave rates on hold for the rest of the year as it aims to strike a fine balance between supporting a struggling economy and clamping …
