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This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Inflation remains low as initial reopening effects begin to fade Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 87-month low. Consumer price inflation …
9th June 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Exports stumbled but imports jumped China’s exports contracted year-on-year in May for the first time in three months, with export volumes falling below their …
7th June 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since the initial publication. A mixed start to Q2 Growth on most indicators accelerated in y/y terms in April. But this was due to a weak base for comparison from a year ago when Shanghai and …
16th May 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Credit demand much weaker than expected A widely-anticipated acceleration in credit growth didn’t materialise last month, suggesting that momentum may already be …
11th May 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts s ince first publication. Fluctuations in food and energy prices outweigh impact of reopening Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 35-month low, and consumer price …
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Exports set to struggle further China’s export volumes partially reversed March’s jump last month. Shipments of most consumer goods declined due to weak global demand …
9th May 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Growth still strong but slowing The latest survey data add to wider evidence that while China’s recovery remains robust, it is losing some momentum. In particular, the …
4th May 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Return of tourists propelling city’s rebound Hong Kong’s GDP growth turned positive in Q1 after four consecutive quarters of decline. The economy rebounded more …
2nd May 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Growth on course to hit 6% this year GDP rebounded more quickly than expected in Q1 thanks to a rapid return to normality following last year’s virus disruptions. …
18th April 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Note: Join our 18th April online briefing discussing what China’s Q1 “data dump” tells us about the strength of the country’s reopening recovery. Register now . …
13th April 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Credit growth still strengthening Bank loan growth jumped to a 17-month high in March. And broad credit growth rose to its highest since December. Both were stronger …
11th April 2023
Inflation set to remain below government’s ceiling this year Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 33-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped below 1% for the first time in over a year. The key drivers were a decline in food …
Reopening boost to industrial activity already waning The Caixin manufacturing index was more downbeat than its official counterpart, especially when it came to export orders. Taken together, the surveys suggest that growth in factory activity dropped …
3rd April 2023
Still going strong The official PMIs suggest that China’s rapid reopening recovery remained robust this month. The weak global backdrop weighed on manufacturing but services continued to benefit from a resurgence in consumer spending and construction was …
31st March 2023
RRR cut not a major easing move The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR). This will provide a bit of financial relief for China’s large and medium-sized banks. It may also help nudge down lending rates …
17th March 2023
A stronger start to 2023 Activity data for the first two months were broadly as expected, showing a jump in consumer spending coupled with modest gains in investment and industrial output. High-frequency data suggest that this recovery has continued in …
15th March 2023
Credit growth benefiting from reopening boost Bank loan growth jumped to a 14-month high in February. And broad credit growth accelerated for the first time since September. This rebound should continue in the near-term thanks to a reopening revival in …
10th March 2023
Drop in inflation suggests reopening effects remain small Factory gate prices stopped falling last month, as China’s reopening helped to put a floor under global commodity prices. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation dropped back sharply due to a fall in …
9th March 2023
No reopening boost to imports yet China’s import volumes were little changed at the beginning of the year, disappointing hopes for a rebound. But we still think that reopening will eventually drive a pick-up in imports. And while exports fared better than …
7th March 2023
A very rapid rebound The latest survey data is exceptionally strong, consistent with our expectation for a rapid near-term rebound in economic activity. The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in January to 51.6 in February (the Bloomberg consensus …
1st March 2023
Credit growth is bottoming out After slowing last year, bank loan growth jumped to a 10-month high in January. Broad credit growth looks to have ticked up too after accounting for seasonal effects. We expect the recovery to continue in the near-term as …
10th February 2023
Inflation ticking up on reopening effects Factory-gate prices continued to decline last month thanks to falling commodity prices and waning supply chain disruption. But at the same time, a jump in demand for travel and other services following the removal …
Return of tourists will help drive the city’s recovery Hong Kong’s GDP was unchanged in q/q terms last quarter. This was largely due to a further decline in exports but the worst may be over on that front given that global growth is probably close to a …
1st February 2023
Industrial activity steady as services rebound The Caixin manufacturing PMI published today edged up slightly in January as disruption from the reopening wave eased but it remained at a subdued level. Taken together with the official survey published …
Reopening kick starts a rapid recovery The official PMIs add to evidence of a rapid rebound in economic activity this month as disruption from the reopening wave faded. More shoppers returned to the street boosting services activity while easing labour …
31st January 2023
A smaller-than-expected hit from reopening China’s statistics bureau claims that GDP was unchanged q/q in Q4. That is implausible, even accounting for December data showing surprising economic resilience in the face of the reopening wave of infections. …
17th January 2023
Reopening to boost imports but exports will still struggle China’s exports contracted year-on-year in December by the most since the Wuhan lockdown in early 2020. Imports held up slightly better but are still depressed. Inbound shipments should start to …
13th January 2023
Some very modest reopening effects Consumer price inflation ticked up in December, while producer price deflation eased. There are some early signs that the transition toward living with COVID is starting to put upward pressure on prices. But the uptick …
12th January 2023
Getting worse in December but soon likely to be getting better The downturn in credit growth extended in December amid the economic disruption from reopening. But the worst of disruption may have already passed. The shift toward living with COVID and …
10th January 2023
Headwinds from reopening continue into 2023 The latest manufacturing surveys suggest that the hit to factory activity intensified further in December following the surge in infections. A combination of recurrent virus waves, a deepening global downturn …
3rd January 2023
The downturn has deepened and reopening won’t reverse it overnight The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai …
15th December 2022
Little appetite for borrowing Credit growth has now reversed all of its modest acceleration over the past year, a clear sign that monetary easing has failed to gain traction due to virus disruption and waning confidence among households and firms. …
12th December 2022
Inflation likely to remain subdued even amid reopening Consumer price inflation dropped to its lowest in eight months in November and producer price inflation stayed at a 23-month low. The shift away from zero-COVID could put some upward pressure on …
9th December 2022
Exports set to shrink further as global recession looms Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in November by the most since the start of the pandemic and imports dropped at the fastest pace in 30 months. We expect outbound shipments to fall further over …
7th December 2022
More signs of weakness in industry The Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, the surveys suggest that downward pressure on industrial activity intensified last month. …
1st December 2022
COVID disruptions deliver a further hit to activity The official PMIs add further evidence of another large blow to services activity as virus disruptions intensified this month. The hit to industry looks to have been more modest. But downside risks …
30th November 2022
Economy to continue struggling The October data point to a further loss of momentum, with retail sales dropping sharply amid worsening virus outbreaks. November is shaping up to be even worse. With exports cooling, the property sector still in the …
15th November 2022
PPI deflation setting in Consumer price inflation eased last month from September’s 29-month high and remained below the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. It is set to stay low by global standards over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, producer price …
9th November 2022
Exports set to fall further as outlook darkens China’s export volumes dropped back sharply in October, due to a deterioration in global economic conditions and a reversal in pandemic-related demand. We expect exports to weaken further over the coming …
7th November 2022
Better than expected but still consistent with a slowdown The Caixin manufacturing PMI rose in October but remained weak. Taken together with the official survey published yesterday, it points to a slowdown in industrial activity last month. We think the …
1st November 2022
Weak exports will continue to hold back the city’s recovery Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter due to a sharp decline in exports. While the ongoing easing of virus-related restrictions should continue to support a recovery in retail spending, …
31st October 2022
COVID disruptions and global downturn hit activity The official PMIs point to a further loss of momentum in this month as virus disruptions worsened and export orders remained under pressure. With the zero-COVID policy here to stay, we think the economy …
Omicron hit reversed but momentum still weak Growth ticked up in Q3 as China's economy recovered from the Omicron wave. But this leaves output only slightly higher than where it started the year. And momentum is already weakening again. GDP growth picked …
24th October 2022
Core inflation continues to ease Consumer price inflation rose to a 29-month high in September and is now scraping up against the government’s preferred ceiling of 3%. But this was due to a rise in food inflation that is likely to prove temporary. With …
14th October 2022
No sign of FX sales, but PBOC pushing back in other ways The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, …
7th October 2022
Industry and services both take a hit The surveys suggest that China’s economy continued to lose momentum in September, with the global downturn weighing on exports and virus disruptions dealing a fresh blow to services activity. While the latter should …
30th September 2022
Economy set to remain weak due to zero-COVID and property woes China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. …
16th September 2022
Inflation will remain below government’s ceiling this year Consumer price inflation fell in August and remains below the PBOC’s preferred ceiling of 3%, leaving room for the Bank to ease policy further. Meanwhile, producer price inflation declined to its …
9th September 2022
Exports drop back amid cooling global demand Export volumes fell by the most since March in a sign that slowing global growth and the normalisation of consumption patterns is starting to weigh on demand for Chinese goods. In contrast, there was a slight …
7th September 2022
More signs that growth has stalled The larger-than-expected drop in Caixin manufacturing PMI was more significant than the slight rise in the official PMI , suggesting that downward pressure on industry intensified last month. There is more pain on the …
1st September 2022