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The imminent easing of restrictions in Ontario is another reason to think that GDP will keep rising in the fourth quarter, but there is clearly a significant chance that restrictions will be reimposed again soon. The most populous provinces have had …
5th November 2020
While the Bank of Canada today trimmed the pace of its QE purchases, we agree with its claim that the program should be as stimulative as before providing those purchases are focused on longer-term bonds as it signalled. Moreover, the Bank’s enhanced …
28th October 2020
A Democratic clean sweep in the US election is probably the scenario that would be most beneficial for Canada’s GDP, but the effects would still be far outweighed by other factors. The US election has the potential to impact the Canadian economy through …
27th October 2020
The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet has been shrinking in recent weeks, as demand for its emergency repos loans continues to subside, and it will experience a bigger fall next spring, when the 12-month repo loans made at the height of the …
20th October 2020
We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a continued appreciation over the next two years. Those …
19th October 2020
We think the Bank of Canada’s GDP forecasts are too weak given it assumes there will not be a second wave of the virus. Even if there is one, the Bank is likely underestimating the potential for inflation to rise. The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report …
29th July 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
The latest Business Outlook Survey somewhat surprisingly shows that Canadian firms have convinced themselves a recovery is just around the corner, even though the weak global backdrop and evidence of a slowdown south of the border would seem to suggest …
28th June 2019