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Export volumes struggling despite boost from agricultural sector The essentially unchanged level of export volumes in October, despite a big boost from higher agricultural exports, suggests that the sector is beginning to struggle amid weaker external …
6th December 2022
Unemployment rate declines despite slowdown in hiring The slowdown in hiring in November was not enough to prevent a renewed decline in the unemployment rate, as the labour force contracted. The Bank of Canada will be more encouraged by the fall in the …
2nd December 2022
Domestic demand contracts for first time since 2021 The stronger-than-expected gain in third-quarter GDP tips the odds slightly toward another 50 bp interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. But, with domestic demand contracting for the first …
29th November 2022
Core inflation pressures better than they look Headline inflation was unchanged at 6.9% in October and the CPI-median and CPI-trim measures of core inflation increased, but the latter was mainly due to unfavourable base effects. It appears that the …
16th November 2022
Jump in employment and wage growth pressures the Bank to do more The 108,300 surge in employment in October makes a mockery of claims that the economy is on the cusp of recession and, with wage growth accelerating sharply despite favourable base effects, …
4th November 2022
Export outperformance overshadowed by record fall in building permits The improvement in crop yields boosted export volumes in September, but the outperformance of exports was overshadowed by the also-reported record slump in building permits, which …
3rd November 2022
Economy performed better than feared last quarter The economy performed better than expected last quarter but, with the business surveys deteriorating in recent months, GDP growth is likely to slow to a crawl this quarter and we expect a mild recession in …
28th October 2022
Bank slows pace of tightening despite ongoing inflation concerns Today’s smaller 50 bp interest rate hike, which took the overnight rate to 3.75%, suggests that the Bank of Canada is growing confident that its actions so far will be enough to vanquish …
26th October 2022
Strength of core inflation points to another 75 bp hike The Bank’s core CPI inflation measures were unchanged in September but, given that we expected a decline due to more favourable base effects, that probably increases the odds of another 75bp hike …
19th October 2022
Hours worked fall despite modest rebound in employment The first rise in employment in four months in September is not as strong as it looks as it was driven entirely by public sector employment, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to …
7th October 2022
Weak export volumes a risk to third-quarter GDP growth The drop in export volumes in August and the large downward revision to the trade surplus in July present downside risks to our already-weak estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% annualised. …
5th October 2022
Growth slowing but economy doing better than feared Strong gains in the natural resource sector will prevent the economy from contracting this quarter but, with the business surveys deteriorating and the global economy facing recession, it looks …
29th September 2022
Headline and core both moving in right direction The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August lend some support to our forecast that the Bank of Canada will drop down to a 25 bp hike in October, particularly with the labour …
20th September 2022
Bank gives little away as it hikes by 75 bp The Bank of Canada remains concerned about the risk of high inflation expectations becoming entrenched but, with the economy now slowing sharply and inflation easing by more than the Bank expected, we still …
7th September 2022
Export volumes rose by more than we expected in July but, with the fall in import volumes painting a weak picture of domestic demand, it still looks likely that GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter. The 2.8% m/m fall in export values in July was the …
Growth set to slow sharply this quarter The weaker-than-expected second-quarter rise in GDP as well as the preliminary estimate of a small fall in output in July confirm that the economy is slowing sooner than the Bank of Canada predicted. Nevertheless, …
31st August 2022
