Filtered by Subscriptions: Australia & New Zealand Economics Use setting Australia & New Zealand Economics
RBNZ should shrug off second technical recession and keep policy unchanged The Bank’s new house price focus shouldn’t change the policy outlook We still expect the RBNZ to hike rates in 2022 New Zealand has probably experienced a second technical …
7th April 2021
RBA will remain committed to its bond yield target And should extend QE once more in June Market too bullish on rate hikes In recent weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to push back against expectations of monetary tightening. We think the …
31st March 2021
The financial markets have started to price in a rate hike as soon as early-2023 Labour market tightening but wage growth and inflation set to fall short of RBA’s targets We expect the first rate hike to be delayed until early-2024 and bond yields to fall …
24th February 2021
Economic rebound means the RBNZ done easing The Bank has already slowed the pace of asset purchases We expect the Bank to end quantitave easing this year before hiking rates in 2022 Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand …
17th February 2021
RBA may choose to keep up with large asset purchases by overseas central banks But labour market doing much better than Bank had anticipated Balance of financial stability risks starting to shift as credit growth set to surge While the Reserve Bank of …
27th January 2021
Vaccine may be available by Q2 2020, allowing full reopening of the economy Labour market doing much better than Bank had anticipated Case for additional stimulus is diminishing The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t make any policy changes at its meeting on …
24th November 2020
Economic data have been mixed but generally support further easing RBNZ to launch lending programme to lower funding costs RBNZ to cut OCR to -0.25% in April and hold rates steady thereafter At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a …
5th November 2020
Cash rate target, three-yield target and TFF interest rate to be lowered to 0.10% Interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances to remain at 0.10% Quantitative easing is coming and the Bank may buy $150bn in government bonds The Reserve Bank of Australia …
28th October 2020
Bank coming round to our view that wage growth and inflation will remain soft Cash rate target, three-yield target and TFF interest rate to be lowered to 0.10% Additional bond purchases to lower long-term yields also on the cards The Reserve Bank of …
29th September 2020
RBNZ pushing QE to its limits Second wave delays the economic recovery The RBNZ set to launch negative rates next year The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at …
17th September 2020
Draconian lockdown in Victoria to weigh on recovery and lift unemployment Inflation and wage growth set to soften further We still expect the Bank to start buying-longer dated bonds early next year The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing …
25th August 2020
RBNZ on track to meet its QE targets New Zealand economy broadly recovered The RBNZ will hold off until 2021 to launch negative rates to combat weak inflation The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its …
5th August 2020
Initial bounce-back in activity has been stronger than expected But renewed lockdown in Melbourne is weighing on recovery and inflation is slumping We still expect a resumption in asset purchases before long The renewed lockdown in Melbourne is set to …
29th July 2020
Activity and labour market exceeding Bank’s expectations But unemployment set to remain far above pre-virus levels, weighing on wage growth Bank may resume bond purchases at some point, perhaps early next year Given that the economy has coped better with …
30th June 2020
RBNZ beginning to slow the pace of QE New Zealand economy recovering solidly The RBNZ will hold off until 2021 to launch negative rates to address low inflation The RBNZ has started to reduce the pace of asset purchases as economic activity has recovered. …
18th June 2020
Previous government bond purchases were focused on restoring liquidity Unemployment is rising and inflation set to slump Bank may launch fresh round of purchases focused on lowering long-term rates We suspect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep …
26th May 2020
The lockdown hit the New Zealand economy hard RBNZ is supporting the economy with QE and other measures but more is needed The RBNZ will cut the OCR into negative territory, perhaps in August The RBNZ will want to wait to assess the impact of the virus …
6th May 2020
Bank has started to roll back liquidity provision and bond purchases as tensions ease Unemployment set to remain above levels consistent with full employment for years Interest rates will have to remain low for longer than markets anticipate The continued …
28th April 2020
Tensions in interbank and bond market easing Corporate bond spreads remain high but not high enough for RBA to buy private bonds With inflation set to fall short of its target for years to come, negative rates still an option The recent easing in …
2nd April 2020
Bank remains concerned that cutting rates further will undermine financial stability But coronavirus outbreak set to dampen activity and unemployment will climb further We’ve pencilled in a 25bp cut in April and July The Reserve Bank of Australia remains …
25th February 2020
Coronavirus will hit the New Zealand economy in the near term. But indicators point to an improvement in economic activity. So we think the RBNZ is done cutting rates. The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter …
5th February 2020
Falling unemployment allows Bank to keep rates unchanged in February But GDP growth set to fall short of expectations and wage growth still soft More easing will be needed to meet the inflation target The further fall in the unemployment rate in December …
29th January 2020
Economic data have been weak but RBA will wait for Q3 GDP data before cutting Subdued growth and inflation will force the RBA to cut rates to the 0.25% floor in 2020 Governor Lowe set a higher bar for QE but we expect that bar to be reached next year The …
27th November 2019
Economic data has been in line with RBNZ forecasts… …so we think the Bank will hold for now. But sustained economic weakness means rates will be cut to 0.5% next year. The economic data have been better than the Bank anticipated in their last set of …
6th November 2019
Despite rebound in house prices, GDP growth set to remain subdued Rising unemployment will push underlying inflation further below 2% We now expect the Bank to cut rates to 0.25% and launch quantitative easing next year Falling unemployment and steady …
30th October 2019
Labour market still set to ease further But outlook for GDP growth has improved as house prices have started to rebound Forceful policy response lowers likelihood of unconventional policy being deployed The continued rise in the unemployment rate will …
24th September 2019
Economic activity in Q2 was in line with RBNZ forecasts… …so we think the Bank will hold for now. But sustained economic weakness means rates will be cut to 0.75% by early next year. Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the …
19th September 2019
RBA to leave rates unchanged in September But renewed increase in unemployment should prompt the Bank to cut in November Conditions need to deteriorate much further for RBA to launch QE The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t learned much on the state of the …
27th August 2019
The New Zealand economic outlook remains sour… …And the RBNZ have signalled they are ready to act Rates will be cut in August and again in November The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee sounded almost ready to cut rates at its last meeting in June. …
1st August 2019
The RBA will pause in August following back to back rate cuts… …But given the weakness in the economy, the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early 2020 Lowe may be venturing into the world of forward guidance We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a …
31st July 2019
We expect another cut to 1.0% at the July meeting RBA has indicated that it wants the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% Rates reaching lower bound opens door for quantitative easing We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.0% at …
25th June 2019