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PMI suggests weakness continued in the New Year South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped further in January, adding to the evidence that the economy remained very weak at the start of 2020. Figures released earlier today showed that South Africa’s …
3rd February 2020
Inflation picked up, easing cycle will be short South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut. Figures released …
22nd January 2020
PMI suggests weakness continued in December South Africa’s manufacturing PMI edged lower in December, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4 and raising the prospect of another technical recession. Figures released earlier today …
8th January 2020
Inflation on the rise, rates to remain on hold Nigerian inflation picked up again in November, driven mostly by rising food inflation. We think that the headline rate will continue to climb over the coming months and that policymakers will leave their key …
17th December 2019
Inflation weak, but will pick up in 2020 South African inflation stayed very weak in November, but petrol prices will push up the headline rate in December. Despite a flagging economy, we doubt that the SARB will cut its key policy rate anytime soon. …
11th December 2019
PMI points to continued weakness South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in November, adding to the evidence that the economy remained weak in Q4. Figures released earlier today showed that South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell from 48.1 in October …
2nd December 2019
Governor keeps faith with unconventional policy Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail, prompting a …
26th November 2019
Economy continues to splutter along Nigeria’s non-oil economy strengthened a touch in Q3, but headline growth remained very weak. Without significant policy change, we expect that the economy will continue to struggle in 2020. National accounts figures …
22nd November 2019
Inflation slips again Weak inflation figures have increased the risk of another rate cut at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But with inflation set to pick up over the coming months, we expect that the rate will remain on hold. Figures released this morning showed …
20th November 2019
Inflation picks up again, rate cut now unlikely Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional means. …
18th November 2019
Car troubles send manufacturing into reverse Manufacturing output fell further than expected in September, adding to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted over Q3. And a key business survey pointed to continued weakness in early Q4. Figures …
7th November 2019
More evidence of weakness South Africa’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 in October, which wasn’t as bad as most analysts had feared. But the measure still suggests that the economy has remained weak in recent months. Figures released earlier today …
1st November 2019
Inflation slips again, but will soon pick up South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. Figures released …
23rd October 2019
Above-target inflation won’t stop policy loosening Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably try …
15th October 2019
More evidence of weakness in Q3 South Africa’s PMI slumped to a decade low of 41.6 in September, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains very weak. Figures released earlier today showed that …
1st October 2019
Inflation still weak, rate cut likely tomorrow South African inflation remained below the target midpoint in August, which we think will allow policymakers to cut their key rate from 6.50% to 6.25% at their meeting tomorrow. Figures released this morning …
18th September 2019
Inflation eases again, rate cut on the way Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. Figures released …
17th September 2019
After strong July, PMI tumbles South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in August, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains weak. Figures released earlier today showed that South …
2nd September 2019
Inflation falls below target, rate cut likely in September South African inflation slipped to just 4.0% y/y in July, supporting our view that policymakers will cut their policy rate from 6.50% to 6.25% in September. This is a strongly non-consensus view. …
21st August 2019
Bouncing back, but economy still pretty weak South Africa’s PMI rebounded to 52.1 in July, adding to signs that the economy gained pace in the middle of the year. Even so, headline growth over 2019 as a whole will be tepid, and we still expect that …
1st August 2019
Inflation remains at target, rate cut likely in September South African inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of the target range in June, which strengthens our view that policymakers will follow up this month’s 25bp rate cut with another one in …
24th July 2019
Inflation eases, rate cut on the way Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in June, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate next week. Figures released today showed …
15th July 2019
Survey in sustained slump South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in June, but it still points to a poor performance in Q2. While the survey sometimes provides misleading readings, its consistent weakness suggests growth was sluggish. Figures released …
1st July 2019