Filtered by Subscriptions: Global Markets Use setting Global Markets
While we continue to forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our generally optimistic forecasts. As we set …
16th September 2020
We think that the recent outperformance in local-currency terms of the MSCI EM Index relative to the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities will continue as the global economy recovers further. (See Chart 1.) Back in April , when stock markets …
25th August 2020
We forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus shock and both monetary and fiscal policy remain extremely accommodative. Both the …
21st August 2020
With monetary policy likely to remain loose for a very long time and the world’s largest economies gradually re-opening, we think that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will continue to recover from their pandemic-induced Q1 slump. To reflect this, we …
24th June 2020
While much of the rebound in EM currencies is now probably behind us, we think that many of them will rise a bit further against the US dollar as risky assets generally continue to recover. (See Chart 1.) We have revised up our forecasts for many emerging …
17th June 2020
While the rally in developed market (DM) equities has lost some steam over recent weeks, we think that they will make up some further ground in the coming months provided that the global economy starts to recover. We suspect that the stock markets with a …
21st May 2020
While EM assets, especially in Latin America and EMEA, have been among the worst hit by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, we think that they will regain some of the ground lost over the past few months. But even then, we expect that most will end …
13th May 2020
The turmoil in financial markets caused by the global spread of COVID-19 shows little sign of abating, despite policymakers’ efforts to contain the fallout. Our view remains that until evidence emerges that the spread of the virus is slowing down, risky …
17th March 2020
Given our view that investors’ expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year will be disappointed, we think that the twin rally in US equity and bond markets will end before long. After falling by about 3% in the immediate aftermath of the virus …
18th February 2020
Even if the coronavirus outbreak in China is brought under control and the recent moves in equity and bond markets unwind, we think that most EM assets will not make significant gains this year. This reflects our long-held pessimistic view of China’s …
11th February 2020
Despite recent optimism about trade and Brexit, we doubt that equities in developed markets (DMs) will fare as well next year as they have in 2019. That said, those in the UK will be an exception in our view. Two key factors have boosted equities across …
17th December 2019
Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions, we think that they will weaken against the US dollar …
11th December 2019
Although we think that the Fed is now done cutting rates, we think that more easing is coming outside the US and that major central banks will remain net buyers of bonds. With this in mind, we forecast that government bond yields in most developed …
28th November 2019
EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the rally will last, and forecast that EM equities will tread …
13th November 2019
The strong performance of US equities this year has continued to be, at least in part, fuelled by expectations that growth in corporate earnings there will be much faster than elsewhere. Nonetheless, given our view that the US economy will slow further in …
20th September 2019
The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed particularly well, and we think that the stage is set for …
5th September 2019
Emerging market (EM) equities have continued to recover from their sharp falls in May, but we do not think that they are out of the woods this year. Expectations for EM corporate earnings seem to be based on assumptions about the outlook for the global …
17th July 2019
We think that there is very little, or no, scope for rate expectations and bond yields to renew their downward trend in most economies, given how far they had already tumbled before their recent rebound. The dark blue bars in Chart 1 show how investors …
12th July 2019