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Manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global industry remained weak at the start of Q4. However, we take some comfort from the fact that, at the world level, the surveys have stopped deteriorating. The release of Markit’s global manufacturing PMI …
1st November 2019
Globalisation has peaked. It may stall over the next decade, but a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. If this is driven by new technologies, it will not be bad for the world economy. But it could take a more malign, policy-driven, form. If …
29th October 2019
Flash PMIs for October indicate that underlying momentum in advanced economies has continued to weaken at the start of Q4. The weighted average of the US, euro-zone and Japan composite PMIs imply that the index for developed markets as a whole fell in …
24th October 2019
Given the widespread use of the US dollar in international trade and finance, policymakers outside the US have suggested that the dollar’s appreciation is partly to blame for the slowdown in the world economy. While US exchange rate moves do exert …
21st October 2019
This Update analyses the key Brexit events in British Parliament this week and highlights at what point we would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or so will be pivotal in determining whether the pound …
The global manufacturing PMI picked up again in September, but this was largely due to a jump in China’s index that we don’t think will be sustained. While it is still too early to call time on the downturn in global industry, it is at least of some …
1st October 2019
Flash PMIs for September suggest that advanced economies ended Q3 on a weak footing. The surveys also point to weaker exports, jobs growth and core inflation. The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI, to a 75-month low, indicates that the economy almost …
24th September 2019
The ruling by the Supreme Court in the UK that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as possible increases the chances of a delay to Brexit and …
The attack on Saudi oil is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy. Saudi production might resume quite quickly and even if it doesn’t, the implications for oil prices and developed economy inflation should be limited. But growing tensions in the …
16th September 2019
The small uptick in the global manufacturing PMI in August offers little comfort about the state of the world economy. The index still points to very weak global production growth, the downturn in the US is deepening and the future output indices have …
3rd September 2019
The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14 th October increases the downside risks to the British economy and the pound by decreasing the chances of a further delay to Brexit and increasing …
28th August 2019
PMI surveys for August imply that growth in advanced economies has slowed further in the third quarter. But one crumb of comfort is that the weakness in manufacturing has not yet weighed much on services. Markit’s flash composite PMIs, published today, …
22nd August 2019
The current global economic slowdown may descend into something more serious if manufacturing drags services down with it. Fortunately, there are reasons to think that the spillovers from the industrial slump will continue to be limited, at least during …
21st August 2019
Inverted yield curves in the US and elsewhere tell us very little about the timing of future downturns and, for now at least, the economic data are more consistent with a slowdown than a downturn in the world economy. That said, there are clear risks to …
15th August 2019
We’re comfortable with our below-consensus forecast for global growth but, for now, the increasingly gloomy view priced into bond markets seems difficult to square with the latest economic data . Regular readers will know that we’ve been among the most …
8th August 2019
While the recent escalation of the US-China trade war may have occurred a bit earlier than even we had anticipated, it fits with our below-consensus forecast for global growth this year and next. What’s more, it reinforces our view that the direction of …
6th August 2019
The further fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that industry remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, with forward-looking components suggesting that a recovery is unlikely anytime soon . The global …
1st August 2019
Advanced economy PMI surveys for July revealed that the relatively resilient services sector struggled to support growth, as the industrial downturn deepened. And the latest results of the Global Business Outlook surveys support our view that the slowdown …
24th July 2019
The IMF has revised down its global growth forecasts, but they are still much stronger than our own. Its forecasts for advanced economies look particularly optimistic and we think that the changing monetary policy stance will take longer to bear fruit …
23rd July 2019
Several timely economic indicators have lurched down recently, suggesting that even our below-consensus global growth forecasts might be too optimistic. But some are not as reliable as is often assumed while others paint a more encouraging picture. …
16th July 2019
The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly. While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown point to prolonged weakness in the auto sector. Needless to …
10th July 2019
8th July 2019
The continued broad-based decline in the global manufacturing PMI in June appears to confirm that the industrial malaise worsened in the second quarter . The global manufacturing PMI, published today, fell from 49.8 to 49.4, leaving it consistent with a …
1st July 2019
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chief Economist's Note: Checking in on our key calls …
Facebook’s new currency, Libra, could be a significant step forward in reducing the cost of processing international transactions. However, it is very unlikely to become a widely-used global currency. Libra’s unveiling has inevitably invited comparisons …
28th June 2019
It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we suspect that any truce will prove temporary. The …
26th June 2019
PMI surveys for June imply that the slowdown in advanced economies worsened in the second quarter, as growth in the US dropped back towards the weak pace already experienced in the euro-zone and Japan. With price pressures easing too, the surveys support …
25th June 2019
In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
1st February 2019
In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015. However, in all of these cases, the pace of money growth is …
11th May 2018
Growth of almost all monetary aggregates slowed in major advanced economies in February, but we are not worried for three reasons. First, money growth has only slowed a bit. Second, changes in money growth tend to lag, not lead, changes in real activity. …
4th April 2018
The sell-off in financial markets, which was triggered by a reassessment of the outlook for US inflation and interest rates, has meant that government bond yields have jumped. But these recent moves are not yet a major cause for concern. Monetary …
15th February 2018
Monetary conditions should stay accommodative this year, even though the ECB has scaled back its asset purchases this month and the Fed will continue to gradually reduce its balance sheet. Bank lending is also likely to keep growing steadily. … Bank …
11th January 2018