Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Markets Economics Use setting Emerging Markets Economics
Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in August, with Turkey a key exception. But even if …
26th August 2020
The latest Q2 GDP figures show diverging depths of downturns between EMs (outside China), which can largely be explained by differences in the severity of virus outbreaks and the stringency of lockdowns. Recoveries are following this pattern too. China’s …
20th August 2020
EM goods exports rebounded reasonably strongly in June and July but, with the global recovery showing signs of losing momentum, further gains from here are likely to be slow-going. Having collapsed between February and April, our seasonally-adjusted …
19th August 2020
Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may form part of a broader trend across the emerging world, …
28th July 2020
EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the uptick. EM trade data for May were relatively …
16th July 2020
The latest hard data, and our Covid Recovery Trackers , suggest that the downturn in EM GDP bottomed out in April and activity is now edging higher. But the recovery is uneven, with rebounds strong in parts of Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe, and much …
22nd June 2020
EM goods exports have slumped during the coronavirus crisis but perhaps by less than might have been expected. Indeed, shipments from parts of Asia appear to have been boosted by a surge in demand for medical and electronics products. A rebound in overall …
18th June 2020
This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM GDP growth over this year as a whole to slump to its …
28th February 2020
There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence of a hit to the trade further afield. EM exports had …
21st February 2020
The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly vulnerable to a halt in spending, though the government would …
6th February 2020
Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs (mostly in the rest of Asia) will be hit via the impact …
31st January 2020
The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile, the Phase One US-China trade deal removes a downside risk …
17th January 2020
EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will disappoint. All but a few of the smaller emerging economies …
20th December 2019
The contraction in EM export growth deepened in October and November but should ease in the next few months as the drags from lower commodity prices and a shift in the Asian electronics cycle fade. Meanwhile, although trade deals agreed by China and …
17th December 2019
EM GDP growth picked up in Q3 and, despite a likely slowdown in China, we expect that aggregate EM growth will be a touch stronger in 2020 than it has been this year. Most major EMs have now released Q3 GDP data. By our estimates, EM GDP growth edged up …
29th November 2019
The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger underlying demand. The latest EM export data have been weak . …
19th November 2019
Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in 2020. We estimate that aggregate EM GDP growth eased to …
30th October 2019
Economic and financial vulnerabilities are generally low across much of the emerging world, but there are a handful of weak links. Argentina’s sovereign debt vulnerabilities remain high and, whichever direction the new president takes, we think that a …
29th October 2019
The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent improvement in the mood music is unlikely to be a prelude …
17th October 2019
The recent stabilisation in EM GDP growth has come alongside further evidence that solid consumer spending is helping to offset weakness in industry. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. Our Tracker suggests that EM GDP expanded by …
27th September 2019
EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. While the dollar value of EM exports in the three …
18th September 2019
The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM growth to remain weak over the next 12-18 months. Almost …
29th August 2019
The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the slump in EM exports. With the global economy set to …
20th August 2019
Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more generally faring poorly, aggregate EM growth will remain very …
26th July 2019
Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign debt default in Argentina. Sovereign debt risks are …
24th July 2019
The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that these trade deals will clear legislative hurdles. And …
18th July 2019
EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world as a whole is likely to remain subdued over the next …
28th June 2019
