Filtered by Topic: Global economic fracturing Use setting Global economic fracturing
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear direction. And even if there is a thaw in political …
20th June 2023
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
8th June 2023
In a fracturing global economy, India stands out as a prime location for the “friend-shoring” of manufacturing supply chains out of China. The manufacturing powerhouses of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are best-placed to benefit from this shift. But a handful of …
23rd May 2023
South Africa has traditionally sought to be non-aligned and, in our ‘ mapping decoupling ’ work, we placed it in neither the US nor the China camp. But recent developments suggest that it could be leaning towards the latter. If that’s the case, it might …
16th May 2023
The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting India on board with China would be difficult. And if the …
4th May 2023
The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt restructurings. And despite some positive noises from the …
17th April 2023
The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the region as well as the oil market. Tensions will not …
13th March 2023
Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. We have highlighted in our Spotlight series that the …
6th March 2023
While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness of its interventionist foreign policy. Our work on …
22nd February 2023
While some of the measures unveiled in the FY23/24 Union Budget are geared towards shoring up popular support ahead of next year’s general election, there is a clear long-term focus too. The projected jump in capital expenditure, cuts to import duties on …
3rd February 2023
The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online drop-in session yesterday to update clients on our …
19th January 2023
This week’s G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, has so far exceeded low expectations. There is broad condemnation of the war in Ukraine and bilateral talks between China and the US seem to have been amicable. But with the meeting dominated by geopolitical …
15th November 2022
Since independence, India has preferred to stay unaligned geopolitically. But in a fracturing global economy, the security and macroeconomic benefits of leaning towards the US – and away from China – may prove too compelling for India to remain on the …
24th October 2022
General Secretary Xi’s Report to the Party Congress signalled a further shift away from market-based reforms in favour of a state-led campaign to increase self-sufficiency and economic security. Investors should also be wary of the growing focus on …
17th October 2022
Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China-led camp. That would threaten to undermine the push by …
6th October 2022
The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in the economic pressure it can exert unless it is willing …
3rd August 2022
Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development of smaller trading blocs that use alternative …
23rd March 2022
At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China’s continued economic rise is being accompanied by a …
17th February 2022
A Biden presidency won’t reverse the tide of US-China decoupling and could lead to economic strains on new fronts if climate change and human rights become greater US priorities. While some ballots are still being counted and the composition of the US …
6th November 2020
The US is attempting to pluck low-hanging fruit first, rather than hold out for a more complete trade deal with China. But reaching an agreement on the more contentious structural issues remains an uphill battle and it still seems more likely than not …
14th October 2019
China has reportedly fleshed out its offer to boost imports from the US. In return, the US is working on a deal to allow ZTE to resume operations and may call off the planned tariffs on Chinese goods. None of this will do much to narrow the bilateral …
6th June 2018
The tariffs announced today will cause difficulties for some firms exporting from China but will have a barely perceptible impact on China’s wider economy . The key uncertainty now is whether President Trump sees the them as an end in themselves, or …
22nd March 2018
In the event of a trade war with the US, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases. US companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that hampered their capacity to do business there. China’s …
17th November 2016
