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While far from certain, there is a growing chance that the German government announces a fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks or months. However, even if it does, we think any boost to demand would be too small to make much difference to short-term growth …
19th September 2019
The euro-zone’s manufacturing downturn has dragged services growth lower this year. And with both employment and wage growth weakening, services will probably slow a little further next year. While the euro-zone slowdown has been concentrated in the …
17th September 2019
Having mirrored the ECB’s 10bp interest rate cut this afternoon, we now expect the Danish Nationalbank to reduce its Certificates of Deposit rate again by the end of the year. Meanwhile, although the SNB is likely to stick with FX interventions for a …
12th September 2019
With today’s policy decision, Mario Draghi appears to have locked the ECB into QE for several years beyond his time in office. While the move was initially welcomed by financial markets, we doubt that it will be enough to re-invigorate the euro-zone …
The formation of a coalition between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party reduces the risk of a renewed clash with the EU over fiscal policy, but it does not dramatically alter the economic outlook. We think that the economy will continue to …
4th September 2019
Under any plausible growth scenario Greece’s credit rating is likely to remain well below investment grade over the coming years. Among other things, this means that Greek bonds will not be included in any fresh round of ECB QE, even if, as we suspect, it …
Germany could have taken the UK’s departure from the EU in its stride a couple of years ago but it will be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months’ time. There is still enormous uncertainty about how and whether the UK will leave the EU, …
28th August 2019
Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their falls over the next few years, taking the total shift in …
The risk to the euro-zone from the US-China trade war is rising. And it seems increasingly likely that the US will raise tariffs on auto imports from the EU, which could tip Germany into recession. There is also a chance that higher auto tariffs would be …
8th August 2019
The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the top cities, though we still expect a slowdown of …
5th August 2019
Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re-evaluating the implications of the softer …
1st August 2019
In this Update we are launching our coverage of the European TTF natural gas price. In short, we think that surging global supply of liquefied natural gas will keep EU markets amply supplied over the next few years. As such, we expect only a modest rise …
The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further support to our forecast that the krona will fall sharply by …
30th July 2019
The apparent confirmation this afternoon that the ECB is inching towards loosening policy lends further support to our view that more rate cuts are on the cards in Denmark and Switzerland too. As we had expected, the ECB left its policy settings unchanged …
25th July 2019
The market reaction to today’s ECB press conference suggests that President Draghi was not as dovish as some investors had hoped for. But the big picture is that it seems clear that policy loosening is coming. We expect the Bank to cut its deposit rate in …
Since last July, the development pipeline in Brussels has grown and prospects for economic growth and thus, occupier demand have nudged lower. While the low availability of Grade A stock will support prime office rental values, Brussels has lost its …
22nd July 2019
It is becoming harder for the Riksbank to brush aside mounting signs of weakness in domestic demand. We expect it to turn more dovish, and the krona to weaken, over the second half of the year. The Riksbank’s reasonably upbeat assessment about the outlook …
With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads have narrowed the most, we do not see any immediate upward …
18th July 2019
The improvement in some of the recent economic data suggests that the risk of an imminent recession is low. But it does not suggest that the economy is about to rebound. We expect growth to remain subdued over the rest of the year, with quarterly GDP …
17th July 2019
A lot has happened since the Governing Council’s policy meeting on 6 th June, so the account published today has arguably been superseded by events. But it does confirm that even five weeks ago the Bank was gearing up for action. The account also hints at …
11th July 2019
IPF Consensus office rent forecasts for 2019 were generally upgraded in their latest iteration, with central Europe seeing a particularly large rise. We also made widespread upgrades to our forecasts in the same six-month period. While our overall …
10th July 2019
New Democracy’s clear victory in Greece’s parliamentary elections yesterday will be welcomed by investors. But it will not be a game changer for the economy, not least because the government will still be constrained by its membership of the single …
8th July 2019
With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more likely that any upturn in euro-zone property yields further …
5th July 2019
Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can stay close to current lows over the next few years, …
4th July 2019
Yesterday’s announcement that Christine Lagarde will succeed Mario Draghi leaves us even more confident that the ECB will loosen monetary policy in the coming months. We think the Bank is likely to cut its deposit rate in September and re-launch QE before …
3rd July 2019
The jump in euro-zone core inflation in June seems to have largely reflected temporary factors. More generally, a range of measures of underlying inflation suggest that price pressures remain subdued. This should encourage the ECB to loosen policy sooner …
2nd July 2019
The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt. But with a lengthy phase-in period for some measures, …
1st July 2019
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
The direct macroeconomic effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on EU exports would be very small. However, if this signals the beginning of a bigger shift towards US protectionism, followed by sustained EU retaliation, the economic implications …
5th March 2018
