Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
After declining in 2021, we think that favourable supply conditions and a rebound in consumer spending will support a recovery in Budapest retail rents into next year. And while the sharp increase in online shopping last year suggests a downside risk to …
8th April 2021
Travel restrictions will hold back cross-border capital flows until at least H2. And given that we expect extra-European capital to return particularly slowly, total investment is set to recover gradually in 2021. With travel restrictions tight for most …
1st April 2021
Despite a more supportive outlook for property valuations, we think that weaker rental prospects will result in southern European property markets continuing to underperform into 2022. Last year we highlighted that southern European property would …
30th March 2021
Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’) as part of its plan to tackle carbon leakage and …
26th March 2021
The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread of the virus, it could even delay the start of the …
23rd March 2021
Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while further strong growth is likely, we don’t expect these …
19th March 2021
Dutch GDP fell much less than the euro-zone average last year and, even though the economy is unlikely to avoid contraction in Q1, we think it will regain its pre-crisis level sooner than any other major euro-zone economy. Next week’s election should not …
10th March 2021
The underwhelming vaccine rollout in Europe will probably delay the easing of restrictions and means that the best of the vaccine bounce will be pushed into Q3. That said, the planned EU-wide vaccine passport offers a lifeline for tourist-dependent …
2nd March 2021
In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns will be lower than in the recent past, but that property …
1st March 2021
Following the decline in 2020, we think prime office rents in Amsterdam will hold steady this year. But rental growth should pick up thereafter, supported by continued growth in the information and communication sector, comparatively low rents and the …
17th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the German markets compared to most southern European …
1st February 2021
Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on prime assets this year, allowing prime office and …
18th January 2021
Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn, irrespective of a successful vaccine rollout, the recovery in …
14th January 2021
Our working assumption is that the vaccine rollout proceeds fast enough for governments to start lifting restrictions in April and that the majority are lifted during May and June. This Update sets out these assumptions in more detail and discusses the …
13th January 2021
We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year. The fortunes of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone …
7th January 2021
While it’s still early days, the underwhelming start to vaccinations in mainland Europe lends support to our view that governments won’t lift most of the restrictions until May/June (see here ), and the uneven start suggests that some countries will make …
Despite a brighter economic outlook later in 2021, many of the factors that weighed on investment activity last year are set to persist. In turn, following a likely 20% fall in European (excluding UK) investment in 2020, we think the recovery this year is …
Although the rollout of effective vaccines should allow economic activity to rebound in the second half of the year, we do not think that European property markets will bounce back quickly. This Update outlines four key developments to watch out for in …
6th January 2021
Yesterday’s approval of the first vaccine by European authorities marked the start of the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU, which we expect to lead to a lifting of restrictions in Q2. However, the gradual pace at which production is being ramped …
22nd December 2020
The ECB’s message that it will persist with its flexible asset purchase programme until at least early 2022 should reassure investors that there will not be a reversal of the compression of bond yields anytime soon. Beyond then, there is a little more …
10th December 2020
A weaker CEE rental outlook, coupled with tighter policy and investors’ reassessment of the sector, suggest that the recent widening between CEE and euro-zone office yields has further to go. As the severity of the pandemic became clear, we argued that …
3rd December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
There is still a lot of uncertainty about the rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine in Europe, but it now seems likely that it will be delivered to those most vulnerable to the disease by Q2 next year, which would help to reduce the risk of damaging runs on …
17th November 2020
Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best in Germany. The official data only run up until …
Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this year, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the US or …
12th November 2020
While an effective vaccine would greatly improve the outlook for next year, the latest data show that the virus is still spreading rapidly. Unless this is reversed soon, the one-month lockdowns in place in many euro-zone countries may be extended, keeping …
10th November 2020
If an effective vaccine is rolled out in the euro-zone in the coming months, it would lead to stronger growth next year but slower growth in 2022. With light at the end of the tunnel, policy support may be just as generous in the short term and be more …
9th November 2020
The new lockdowns in Germany and France, as well as the stricter virus containment measures in other countries, are likely to cause low inflation in the region to become even more entrenched. The lockdowns being implemented across the euro-zone are …
4th November 2020
We now expect euro-zone GDP to contract by 3% q/q in Q4 and to be unchanged in Q1 2021, based on the latest lockdown measures staying in place for three months. A return to the stricter measures of the first wave, which is a quite plausible, would result …
3rd November 2020
European investment activity is likely to remain subdued into 2021, as pricing has been slow to adjust and investors continue to push back investment decisions in the current uncertain environment. CBRE data showed that there were no signs of a recovery …
29th October 2020
We think the one-month national “lockdowns” will result in GDP contracting by around 2.5% q/q in France in Q4 while in Germany GDP will be flat at best. There is obviously a big risk that the lockdowns stay in place for much longer than a month, are …
Even though lockdown restrictions had eased, office take-up in Paris in Q3 was still well below pre-virus levels. And the recent imposition of tighter restrictions in Paris will likely curtail leasing activity in Q4. With similar strict measures likely in …
16th October 2020
Government action has meant corporate bankruptcies have remained low, which has prevented a sharp rise in tenancy defaults and has supported income security on leases. But, as this support is gradually withdrawn, rising tenancy defaults in a weak occupier …
15th October 2020
With the virus spreading rapidly, governments are ramping up their containment measures. The new restrictions will be more targeted, regional and time-specific than in the first wave, but they are still likely to cause a new contraction in the services …
14th October 2020
The recent strength of retail sales data overstates demand on European prime high streets, with spending by tourists still absent and online purchases making an above-average contribution in most markets. That said, online spending growth has been …
9th October 2020
While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view, but also structural changes which are weighing on the …
1st October 2020
Despite the sharp drop in GDP, the relatively small fall in world trade has meant that industrial rents in port cities held up better than expected during H1. And we think that the ongoing recovery in global trade will prevent rents from falling this …
Recent moves in real estate equity prices suggest that there is upside risk to our forecasts for industrial property values this year. However, even the industrial sector will not be immune if rising virus cases lead to widespread lockdowns. Earlier in …
30th September 2020
The fact that policymakers at the SNB and the Norges Bank left policy settings unchanged this morning came as no surprise. Both banks are likely to leave policy unchanged throughout our forecast horizon and, in the case of the SNB, probably until at least …
24th September 2020
In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. Euro-zone retail sales have recovered much more quickly than industrial production since lockdowns …
16th September 2020
The falls recorded so far, most notably in the CEE region, coupled with our view that the initial recovery in retail sales in Europe has started to run out of steam, has prompted us to downgrade our prime retail rental forecasts for the euro-zone and CEE. …
10th September 2020
Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has returned to more normal levels, while consumer credit …
27th August 2020
While Sweden’s economy got off relatively lightly in H1 thanks to the light-touch lockdown, Norway and Finland saw even smaller falls in activity at a lower human cost. Nonetheless, the success of the Nordics does not offer any obvious lessons for those …
26th August 2020
France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is less dependent on international tourism, and the …
24th August 2020
