Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the combination of a cyclical recovery in demand for …
13th October 2021
The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal policy and support GDP growth, but at the cost of …
6th October 2021
Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t limited to the usual suspects like Turkey and Argentina. …
27th September 2021
The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already faced. However, the risk of permanent scarring in many …
9th September 2021
The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more challenging than at the time of the first referendum in …
7th September 2021
Housing market valuations in Sweden are even more stretched than on past occasions when the Riksbank has “leant against the wind” – that is, set policy tighter than needed to contain consumer price inflation. While we think the Bank is unlikely to raise …
1st September 2021
Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the underlying trend in earnings. For now, though, measures of …
31st August 2021
Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that performance in gateway markets will remain relatively …
10th August 2021
Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of the relative outlook across selected western European …
27th July 2021
We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out at about 3% before falling back sharply in 2022. The …
The ECB will make a big splash about climate change when it concludes its monetary strategy review this autumn. In practice, it is likely to make progress in addressing climate-related risks in the banking sector and it may also announce some limited …
18th May 2021
Given that the natural vacancy rate (NVR) provides a better gauge of office market conditions than the absolute vacancy rate, we set out to estimate the NVR across European office markets. Future market conditions implied by our NVR estimates are broadly …
11th March 2021
Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines from Africa and the East Mediterranean Sea will probably …
22nd February 2021
Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the …
19th November 2020
Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to …
8th October 2020
As we have argued in our Global Property Focus , we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the coming years. In Europe, we estimate that this will …
14th September 2020
Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities …
9th September 2020
Sweden’s contrary policy response to the pandemic reduced the depth of its economic slump at the expense of worse public health outcomes. But the data so far suggest that its experience stands out less than one might have expected, both in terms of …
12th August 2020
We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week. Even with a heroic supply response through …
6th August 2020
Before the virus outbreak, falls in prime retail rents were expected to be concentrated in Northern European markets. Now rental falls are likely to spread throughout Southern and Central Eastern Europe as well. The impact of the virus outbreak is highly …
14th May 2020
Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small. And even if governments agreed on a larger tax and …
6th February 2020
French President Emmanuel Macron’s emphasis on overhauling France’s ailing labour market is long overdue. But while there are signs that the changes are starting to take effect, the labour market improvement since 2015 is mostly thanks to a cyclical …
17th December 2019
There is little evidence that negative interest rates have succeeded in boosting economic growth or inflation expectations. But equally, they do not seem to have done much harm either – many of the criticisms levelled at them have been wide of the mark. …
9th December 2019
Set against other asset classes, European commercial property looks fairly valued. Our returns forecasts for 2020-23 of around 5% p.a. on an MSCI all-property basis will look relatively attractive in a multi-asset context. However, comparative total …
With government and corporate bond yields at all-time lows in most of Europe and equity dividend yields close to their long-term averages, European commercial property looks relatively well-priced. The greatest value appears to be in some of the …
8th October 2015
