Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Industrial rebound slowing German industry eked out a meagre increase in production in July, leaving output still well below its pre-crisis level. Production is likely to have increased again in August, but we now seem to be past the period of rapid …
7th September 2020
Signs of rising manufacturing backlogs bode well for the near term The positive set of August manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics suggests that the recovery in industrial activity continued over the summer. While the fortunes of industry …
1st September 2020
Inflation to remain anchored at low levels Swedish headline inflation would have fallen further in July had it not been for temporary effects related to car rental prices. And while core inflation edged up from June, against a backdrop of falling resource …
12th August 2020
Still a long way from normal Despite another substantial increase in June, driven by the auto sector, industrial output in Germany remained well below its pre-crisis level. The recovery should continue in the coming months, but will probably lose momentum …
7th August 2020
Rising virus cases pose growing threat to the outlook Euro-zone retail sales reached their pre-crisis level in June and July’s final PMIs confirmed that the broader recovery continued at the start of Q3. But other parts of the economy won’t have rebounded …
5th August 2020
Swedish economy not immune, but still well placed The sharp contraction in the Swedish economy in Q2 confirms that it has not been immune to Covid, despite the government’s well-documented light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the economic crunch over the …
Hit the hardest and slowest to recover The record plunge in Spain’s GDP of 18.5% q/q is likely to have been one of the biggest falls of any euro-zone country in Q2, illustrating the severity of the country’s lockdown and its slow and partial recovery …
31st July 2020
Q2 as disastrous as expected, a long recovery awaits While the catastrophic collapse in French Q2 GDP was hardly a shock given the country’s stringent lockdown, it still highlights the sheer extent of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. High …
Recovery continues apace The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in July suggests the recovery there continued to gather pace at the start of Q3. That said, the rise in consumption appears to be slowing, and the external sector would suffer …
29th July 2020
Further encouraging signs from German business The message from the Ifo Business Climate Index chimes with that from the PMIs published last week and suggests that the rebound in the German economy continued at a steady pace in July. The increase in the …
27th July 2020
Strong rebound might not be sustained The sharp rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at a decent pace at the start of Q3. But we suspect that activity will remain below pre-crisis levels …
24th July 2020
Recovery in consumption losing momentum The small fall in euro-zone consumer confidence in July is consistent with the message from high frequency data that the recovery in spending may already be slowing. The slight decline in the European Commission’s …
23rd July 2020
Historic collapse in activity and worse to come Lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus caused unprecedented quarterly contractions in GDP in France and Spain in Q1. And with the restrictions set to remained unchanged until mid-May and then be lifted …
30th April 2020
Coronavirus hit to consumption will weigh on growth The increase in euro-zone retail sales data in January suggests that household consumption picked up at the beginning of the year, but we suspect that spending will drop in Q2 as the Covid-19 virus …
4th March 2020
Coronavirus to dampen inflation pressures further February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in the …
3rd March 2020
Broad-based improvement in February, but the story has moved on The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in …
2nd March 2020
Swedish economy will struggle to regain momentum The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation lend …
28th February 2020
Little sign of coronavirus impact, but euro-zone still on course for weak Q1 The rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for February adds to the evidence that the coronavirus has had little impact on the economy so far. But the survey …
27th February 2020
Falling business investment will continue to weigh on economy After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained. With no change …
25th February 2020
Small rise leaves Ifo at low level The small increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February will be a relief for those braced for a big hit from the coronavirus. However, the index is still below its level in December and remains consistent with …
24th February 2020
Limited impact from coronavirus but growth still anaemic The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in February will have assuaged fears that the region’s economy has been adversely affected by supply-chain disruption as a result of the …
21st February 2020
Weaker-than expected inflation to test the Riksbank’s resolve The sharper-than-expected fall in Swedish inflation in January may test the Riksbank’s resolve to keep policy unchanged. With subdued GDP growth likely to weigh on underlying inflation this …
19th February 2020
Germany to continue flirting with recession Given that the German economy stagnated in Q4 last year it will have come as a relief that GDP growth for the euro-zone as a whole was not revised down from +0.1% q/q. We think that Germany will continue to …
14th February 2020
Few signs of a rebound after a dreadful Q4 The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to struggle, even if …
12th February 2020
Pick-up in Norwegian inflation points to tightening bias at the Norges Bank The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the …
10th February 2020
Industrial recession has not yet ended The 3.5% slump in industrial production in December flies in the face of the widely-held view that Germany’s manufacturing sector was on the mend at the end of last year. And even before the coronavirus appeared, …
7th February 2020
Growth to stay weak even if no impact from coronavirus December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that household consumption growth slowed sharply in Q4. Meanwhile, the upward revision to January’s euro-zone Composite PMI implies that the coronavirus …
5th February 2020
Mixed messages from the PMIs The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. The jump in the headline …
3rd February 2020
Weak Q4 provides low base for 2020 The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB will eventually be …
31st January 2020
Euro-zone ESI points to still-weak growth at the start of 2020 Despite increasing in January, the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained much momentum in Q1. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which fell …
30th January 2020
A positive start to the year The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have stabilised at the start of …
Slow start to 2020 The unchanged reading for the euro-zone’s Composite PMI in January leaves it still consistent with fairly slow GDP growth. We think that the economy will continue to grow at a meagre pace in 2020. At 50.9, the Composite PMI was a touch …
24th January 2020
Rise in industrial output won’t prevent a poor Q4 The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s …
15th January 2020
German economy likely to tread water this year News that the German economy expanded by 0.6% last year, down from 1.5% in 2018, suggests that it narrowly avoided another contraction in Q4. Nonetheless, we think that GDP is unlikely to expand significantly …
Inflation set to moderate in 2020 The fact that Swedish inflation was unchanged in December came as a surprise to nobody. But given our view that underlying price pressures will continue to moderate, we are sticking to our non-consensus forecast that …
Industrial recession has not yet ended While the increase in industrial production in November comes as a bit of a relief, it merely reversed the decline in the previous month and still means that output is likely to have fallen again in Q4 as a whole. We …
9th January 2020
ESI still pointing to feeble end to 2019 Although the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up again in December, the index still suggests that economic growth in the region was very weak at the end of last year. The small rise in the ESI …
8th January 2020
ECB still more likely to loosen policy than tighten in 2020 December’s inflation data will provide some relief to policymakers at the ECB, but we are still sceptical that core inflation is about to start on a sustained upward trend. In our view, the …
7th January 2020
Small pick-up in Swiss inflation not a game changer Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with core …
Sluggish end to the year, with Germany and Italy particularly weak The euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December was revised up slightly, but taken together with the other available evidence, this still suggests that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in Q4. …
6th January 2020
Germany to continue struggling in early 2020 December’s Ifo Business Climate Index was a bit better than expected, but it still suggests that the German economy is struggling to grow. We expect GDP growth to remain very weak at the start of next year. The …
18th December 2019
Poor end to a disappointing year The flash PMIs for December will disappoint those looking forward to a happier New Year. Indeed, they point to euro-zone GDP being almost flat in Q4 and a continued industrial recession. Looking beyond the holiday season, …
16th December 2019
Industrial production hasn’t bottomed out yet October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production adds to the evidence that the sector’s troubles are far from over. We expect the sector to remain in recession at the start of next year. The 0.5% m/m …
12th December 2019
Pick-up in inflation makes Riksbank hike next week a done deal The pick-up in Swedish inflation in November means that a rate hike by the Riksbank next week is all but guaranteed. But with surveys continuing to show that the economy is struggling, and …
11th December 2019
Manufacturing recession takes a turn for the worse The sharp drop in production in October was driven by a slump in auto production and suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany’s industrial contraction may even be getting worse. The economy narrowly …
6th December 2019
Stuck in a rut The falls in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in November dash any hopes that the manufacturing sectors have gathered momentum in Q4. With the manufacturing recession in Germany set to rumble on, industrial output in Switzerland and …
2nd December 2019
Sentiment still pointing to weak GDP growth Despite November’s small increase in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), the index suggests that the economy is unlikely to have gained pace in Q4. The slight rise in the ESI, from 100.8 in October …
28th November 2019
Positive surprise but economy is not out of the woods, yet The stronger-than-expected rise in quarterly Swiss GDP growth in Q3 was a bit of a relief and poses upside risks to our near-term forecast. But the outcome was skewed by weather-related effects …
Germany is not out of the woods yet November’s Ifo Business Climate Index suggests that Q3’s small increase in German GDP was not the beginning of a recovery. We think that the economy will contract in the coming quarters. On the face of it, the increase …
25th November 2019
Economy slowing in Q4 The small decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI for November confirms that the economy is still struggling. One silver lining is that the pace at which German industrial output is contracting appears to be slowing. But the weakness …
22nd November 2019
