Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Preparations for the public listing of Saudi state oil company, Aramco, have stepped up a gear this month but the signs are that it is unlikely to be the blockbuster sale that the Kingdom once hoped for. When plans for the listing were first mooted in …
25th November 2019
Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the services sector – which accounts for over 50% of the …
22nd November 2019
The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from the Fed. But we think that bond yields in both countries …
21st November 2019
Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will hit activity in Q4, the strength of the government’s …
15th November 2019
EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the rally will last, and forecast that EM equities will tread …
13th November 2019
Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh on growth in Q4 and have already forced policymakers to …
31st October 2019
Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s finance minister revised his government’s deficit and debt …
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their forecasts assume a larger bounce in GDP growth next year than …
Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16 th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down when his term ends on 9 th January. Altogether 35 …
30th October 2019
The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share of domestically-listed firms. But the recovery was …
The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Lebanon were all …
29th October 2019
Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months (see Chart 1) as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened substantially - the finance ministry …
23rd October 2019
If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end of the year. While a lot of good news is already baked …
22nd October 2019
Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption supports a pick-up in growth in the coming months, the …
30th September 2019
The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August, the government announced that it was easing …
19th September 2019
Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the country was recovering from the Great East Japan …
17th September 2019
At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a number of fronts. Trade tensions have continued to ramp up …
2nd September 2019
Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year and into 2020. (See here .) One of the key risks facing …
26th August 2019
The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the stimulus that has been injected into each economy. Lower …
30th July 2019
Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in this month’s union budget for FY19/20 which would …
23rd July 2019
