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Rising global price pressures have pushed inflation up in Switzerland and Sweden this year, but their central banks look set to leave policy on hold. In contrast, inflation in Norway has been falling recently (see Chart 1) and yet its central bank is …
9th June 2021
Capital value growth improved in Scandinavia and Switzerland in Q1, helped by the easing of virus restrictions and by the improvement in economic activity towards the end of the quarter. The uptick in the pace of Scandinavian industrial capital value …
28th May 2021
With the faster pace of vaccination paving the way for a rebound in economic activity, the prospects for occupier markets have improved. However, structural changes mean that the recovery in the office and retail sectors will be gradual. In contrast, we …
20th May 2021
The partial unwinding in the reflation trade in recent weeks has stopped the decline in the Swiss franc in its tracks. Having depreciated against both the US dollar and the euro since the start of this year, the franc rose against both currencies in …
14th April 2021
The increases in Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian government bond yields over the past month or so have illustrated the extent to which smaller bond markets get dragged around by global conditions. As has been the case since the start of the pandemic, the …
11th March 2021
The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the end of last year, the number of new virus cases in the …
7th January 2021
Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable members of society are inoculated, which will probably be …
4th December 2020
The vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, the recent surge in virus cases in Switzerland (see Chart 1.), the rising strain on the healthcare sector in Sweden, and steps taken to contain …
12th November 2020
Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly (see Chart 1.) and we suspect that the new restrictions will bring the …
5th November 2020
The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before spending on services was strong enough to pick up the …
13th October 2020
Given Norway’s decision to re-open its economy comparatively early, its post-lockdown experience has been watched closely for clues as to how other economies could expect to fare. The latest monthly data showed that mainland GDP continued to expand in …
11th September 2020
Q2 data was a mixed bag as all markets recorded shifts in yields while only a handful of markets saw moves in rents. That said, Scandinavian investment activity took a significant hit in Q2, and despite the pick-up in June and July, transactions look set …
24th August 2020
Investment and occupier demand plunged further in Q2. As expected, the retail sector bore the brunt of the impact, with capital values falling by almost 9% y/y. This drove down all-property capital value growth to just 3% y/y, the lowest since 2012 Q4. …
19th August 2020
Compared to many of the larger euro-zone countries, the coronavirus remains relatively well under control in the Nordic countries and Switzerland. With the exception of Denmark, there are at this stage no signs of a second wave. This in turn is helping to …
13th August 2020
The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data suggest that economic activity is almost back to its …
6th August 2020
The spread of the coronavirus, and the related real-time economic and market disruption, means that a large swathe of hard and survey data released during the past month is old news. Consequently, this publication will now focus on fewer, timely and …
12th March 2020
Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business surveys generally point to a slight pick-up in …
4th March 2020
All-property rental growth eased across most markets in 2019, but the slowdown was concentrated in the retail sector. Admittedly, the Swiss markets remain a bright spot as prime retail rents increased in 2019. But there is no denying the retail sector in …
27th February 2020
Although euro-zone rental value growth slowed in 2019, further falls in property yields supported capital values. Despite the soft economic backdrop, capital value growth should hold up in coming quarters. (See Chart 1.) However, a further slowdown in …
21st February 2020
The initial financial market reaction in Switzerland and the Nordics to the coronavirus followed the familiar pattern during times of uncertainty: the Swiss franc rose and Swiss bond yields tumbled on the back of safe-haven demand, while the Swedish krona …
13th February 2020
The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP. Although the euro-zone surveys for January point to a …
5th February 2020
The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this ‘deterrence effect’ is not what it used to be: whereas the gap …
16th January 2020
Hopes that the euro-zone economy will gather pace in the coming months are likely to be dashed. The latest business surveys point to growth stabilising but not recovering in the final quarter of last year. The slowdown over the past two years has been …
9th January 2020
What a difference a few months make; from being the worst performing G10 currency by some margin between the start of the year and late October, the Swedish krona has risen by about 3% against the euro since the Riksbank hinted that it would “most …
16th December 2019
Hopes that the euro-zone is turning a corner look premature. The latest activity data have been disappointing, with retail sales falling in October and national data pointing to another decline in industrial output. Business surveys paint a bleak picture …
10th December 2019
Despite the softness in economic activity, occupier demand generally held up in Q3. And while there are signs that the cyclical slowdown in the euro-zone is starting to hit CEE markets, given their historically low vacancy rates, we think that rents could …
15th November 2019
Although the euro-zone economy grew by more than expected in Q3, helped by solid growth in France and Spain, the overall picture remains fairly gloomy. Euro-zone GDP expanded by only 0.2% q/q, and survey data, such as the Composite PMI, suggest that it …
6th November 2019
There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the Composite PMI, which is one of the most reliable timely …
8th October 2019
Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering rental value increases in the retail and industrial …
19th August 2019
The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is unsurprising given that the economy is struggling – with GDP …
7th August 2019
The latest economic data, together with the nomination of Christine Lagarde for ECB president, make us more confident in our view that the ECB will cut interest rates and re-launch QE before the year is out. All of the activity data point to a slowdown in …
4th July 2019
