Bank doubles-down on rates staying high for long The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and the doubling down on the message that rates cuts are a long way away supports our view that Bank Rate will stay at 5.25% …
2nd November 2023
The AI revolution will make EM income convergence – or “catch-up growth” – harder as richer economies are better equipped to deploy the technology on a wide scale. It poses a particular headwind to the services-driven economic development path pursued by …
We have just published new in-depth analysis which tracks a worrying path for Italian public debt out to mid-century, showing how the country’s fiscal position is set to become only more fragile in an environment of higher rates but still-sluggish …
Although Treasury yields have fallen back in recent days, the big picture is that they are still much higher than they were when headline and core inflation peaked more than a year ago in the US. In this Focus , we examine the role of inflation in the …
Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so, with strong wage growth set to keep inflation above …
We expect industrial rents in Belgium to outperform the rest of the euro-zone on the back of a brighter economic outlook, very tight supply and a larger rise in e-commerce. We forecast annual average rental growth to reach 3.5% p.a. for the period …
We think that the decision today by Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% signals the end of its tightening cycle. Contrary to the Bank’s communication, we do not expect a hike in December given that inflationary pressures should continue …
This page has been updated with additional analysis Inflation unchanged and set to stay low Swiss headline inflation remained unchanged in October at 1.7% and although the core rate rose for the first time in eight months we expect inflation to stay below …
Despite the sharp downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left policy rates unchanged (at 3.0%) today. We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold for the rest of this year and throughout 2024. The decision was …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag from net trade will be offset by boost from stockbuilding The slump in the trade balance in September increases the risk that the Australian economy entered a recession in …
The government today confirmed that it intends to welcome an increasing number of permanent residents in the next couple of years. Even if the number of permanent residents continues to rise, however, the record number of temporary residents currently in …
1st November 2023
By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to strike a more dovish tone in his press conference and we …
Retail sales continue to boom as industry comes off the boil Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the …
Fed’s tightening bias likely to be dropped soon By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But we suspect the data over the coming …
The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. Although the Treasury today increased the auction size …
The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that resilient activity growth in the third quarter will lead to a …
The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by further fiscal stimulus over the next few months, but a …
One question we have received frequently from clients is what lessons Israel’s previous wars offer when thinking about the effects on its economy from the conflict today. While no two events are the same, one lesson is that the near-term hit to economic …
South Africa’s finance minister reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal consolidation in today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) but, even so, debt is now projected to peak at a much higher level than previously envisaged. A potential new fiscal …
Office-based jobs at a stand-still for first time in three years September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Manufacturing recovery fizzling out The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is …
The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt ratio is likely to increase rather than to fall in the …
China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This includes providing greater credit support to …
There has been a broad-based fall in foreign direct investment flows into the emerging world that, outside China, is mostly the result of a slowdown in global growth. FDI flows should stabilise over the coming year and, over the medium term, we think they …
PMI signals weak start to Q4 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh fall again in October, signalling that the economy made a poor start to Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters as weak demand conditions outweigh any …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Another mixed bag of PMIs The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Early sign of manufacturing activity losing momentum The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the …
House prices confound expectations The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at present, stretched …
With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest rates . The Bank of Japan has been arguing that wage growth …
The October PMIs for Emerging Asia generally dropped back further inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory levels and weaker foreign demand are set to curtail …
House price rally will slow in earnest With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. In seasonally-adjusted terms, house prices across …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBNZ to hold the line as labour market continues to slacken With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever …
31st October 2023
Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and fiscal and monetary policy will need to stay tight. Our …
As is often the case, it is hard to know just what to make of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy announcement. Our sense is that the resulting rise in Japanese government bond yields is more likely to endure than the sharp fall in the yen. To recap, the …
EU ETS will help Tusk meet his climate goals Climate policy will be a key battleground in the upcoming slew of elections over the next 18 months and the climate stakes were high in Poland ahead of its recent election. Note that coal accounts for more than …
An energy shock caused by an escalation of the war between Hamas and Israel would have obvious similarities with that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But we think that ECB policymakers would be less worried about the “second-round” effects on …
Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure on “risky” assets but favouring “safe” ones. But when the economic environment improves, “riskier” assets will rebound, with equities further boosted by enthusiasm …
Morocco’s automobile sector has gone from strength to strength in the past decade, with production now rivalling some producers in Central and Eastern Europe. With investment from major global automobile firms increasing and supply chains deepening, the …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) …
Surge in house prices continues Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices will soften over the …
Sharper slowdown in wage growth still lies ahead The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The surprise stagnation in August and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in September imply that third-quarter GDP probably edged down by 0.1% annualised, marking …
Another solid quarter, but slowdown awaits Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US weighs on …
The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. However, while we …
