Weaker than expected recovery in housing starts The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts some doubt …
16th May 2024
Government purchases of unsold housing may help to stabilise China’s property sector in the near-term, alleviating a key economic headwind. But they won’t prevent the sector from shrinking considerably further by the end of this decade. At its quarterly …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity rebounds, but net trade remains a large drag The 14.1% q/q annualised rebound in Israeli GDP in Q1 was slightly weaker than expected and left GDP almost 3% below its …
The winner of Mexico’s presidential election on 2nd June will have a busy in-tray, from taking advantage of the opportunities presented by near-shoring to the challenges posed by Pemex. And that’s before they even consider the looming issue of a potential …
Overseas loans by Chinese banks peaked in late 2021 and have since been curtailed in response to increased debt problems among EM borrowers. While these strains are partly a consequence of global shocks, they have also underscored some flaws with China’s …
Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. Since US Treasury yields peaked in late April – falling further after the …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) …
Dovish BSP hints at first rate cut in Q3 The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but the tone of the statement was much less hawkish than at its April meeting. Not only did the central bank cut its …
Labour market will continue to loosen The continued rise in the unemployment rate in April further diminishes the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver another interest rate hike. The 38,500 rise in employment last month was stronger …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity set to rebound this quarter The renewed drop in GDP in the first quarter mostly reflects production shutdowns at major carmakers and a pronounced rebound this quarter …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore our energy market forecasts through to 2050, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and an accelerating shift to renewables . The dashboard was last updated on 23rd April 2024. …
This dashboard gives a holistic overview of how shipping disruptions are affecting trade, freight costs, and markets. It also tracks a range of supply chain indicators to monitor inflation risk. Content was last updated 19th March 2025. Updated at least …
Explore our modelled real-time estimates of GDP growth based on high frequency data. These are updated weekly and the impacts of the latest data releases are shown in the dashboard. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned …
Our proprietary indicators provide a reliable and easy-to-interpret way to assess the risk that a country will experience a currency, banking or sovereign debt crisis within the next two years. This dashboard was last updated on 30th April 2025. If you …
The 1.1% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy made a strong start to the year and supports our view that the central bank won’t step up the pace of easing at its next meeting in June. The outturn was a touch below the Refinitiv …
15th May 2024
Housing market struggling to bloom The April housing market data show that the spring season is shaping up to be vastly different than last year, with sales dropping back despite higher listings and house prices unchanged. This has caused us to trim our …
The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking even more overstretched. Although the fundamentals will …
Better news on US inflation over the past couple of days has provided further relief for bond and equity markets, and supports our forecast that Treasury yields will fall back a bit more over the coming months while the equity market scales new highs. …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the US economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the UK economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
This interactive dashboard displays the commodity charts to watch and allows you to explore our price forecasts. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key macroeconomic data for India. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Latin America. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for the Japanese economy. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for euro-zone, Nordic & Swiss economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Emerging Europe. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for economies in Asia (ex Japan). If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for emerging economies. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. This content was last updated on 1st May 2025. If you have subscriber access to the headroom forecasts, you can download it …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for China's economy. We also have a standalone China Activity Proxy dashboard here . If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you …
Manufacturing sector faltering The weakness of manufacturing sales in March suggests that the economy lost momentum heading into the second quarter, matching the message from the earlier preliminary estimates for retail sales and GDP. The 2.1% m/m fall in …
CPI consistent with September rate cut The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator measure came …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for Canada. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or …
Consumers not looking quite as strong We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed likely after the …
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore all of our forecasts and key data for Australia and New Zealand. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
The latest hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024 and, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, this ongoing weakness will put pressure on the next government to revive growth, including …
Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt capitalising on its improved external competitiveness, …
Forecasts for prime office rental growth have generally proven too pessimistic over the past couple of years, but there is again broad agreement that a slowdown is on the way this year. However, we think the risks are still to the downside and that the …
Our forward-looking proprietary Green Transition Scores make it easy to judge, assess and explain your climate position and strategy. If you have any questions about the content, please contact david.oxley@capitaleconomics.com or …
Spending on hotels and overseas visits to the UK are still not back to their pre-COVID-19 levels. But with cost-of-living pressures set to ease around the world and consumer spending likely to outpace overall GDP growth in the UK, demand will recover over …
We expect total returns from both US dollar-denominated, and especially local-currency (LC), emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds to trump, in general, those from US Treasuries in the next couple of years. Dollar-denominated and LC EM sovereign bond …
Euro-zone out of recession but June rate cut still on Data released today confirm that the euro-zone came out of recession in the first quarter, but we suspect that the recovery will be quite muted. The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in the first …
CEE’s recovery moving into second gear The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up over the …
Inflation holds steady but may pick up in H2 Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.6% y/y in April and, while we think that there may be a slight acceleration at the start of Q3, the bigger picture is that inflation in the Kingdom is …
April’s inflation data confirm Riksbank unlikely to cut in June. The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected …
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s disingenuous: the combination of increased government …
We are resending this publication to correct an error in the second paragraph. Slowdown in wage growth means RBA won’t hike any more Wages growth is easing more rapidly than the RBA had anticipated. While this will forestall any further policy tightening, …
