US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (May 2025) The large fall in new home sales in May cancels out all of the positivity of the past couple of months and serves as a valuable reminder that buyer activity can only rise so far with mortgage rates... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update “One Canada” boost won’t come overnight The One Canadian Economy Act (Bill C-5) is a positive step towards reducing dependency on the US in the long run. But it will do little to offset the blow to trade from tariffs given that even fast... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May 2025) With price pressures easing markedly in May, the RBA may well front-load monetary easing to a greater degree than we’re predicting. 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While... 24th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Manufacturers struggling to escape tariffs despite USMCA Data from the first two months of US tariffs being in effect suggest that both Canadian and Mexican manufacturers were struggling to make their exports USMCA-compliant, which poses a downward risk to... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2025) After falling in March, the further 0.3% m/m decline in house prices in April raises the risk that prices are entering a sustained downturn, as the market finally buckles under the weight of near-7%... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed's Powell offers no hint of near-term rate cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared semi-annual testimony to the House today offered no hint that a rate cut is coming any time soon. Despite the recent dovish comments from Trump-appointed Governors... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2025) The Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by a smaller 0.21% m/m on average in May, with the three-month annualised rate declining to 3.0%, but that is probably still too high... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (June 25) With output expanding at a healthy pace and price pressures set to remain relatively firm, we continue to believe the Bank of Japan will deliver its next rate hike sooner than most anticipate. 23rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays hardball on US trade deal A US-Canada trade deal centered on lowering the most onerous US duties, like those on steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, would not stop the economy from slowing later this year, but it would improve... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed biding its time This week Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t sound overly reassured by the lack of an immediate impact of tariffs in consumer prices in May, warning that “it takes some time for tariffs to work their way... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Apr 2025) The rise in retail sales in April showed consumer spending remained resilient to tariffs at the start of the second quarter. That said, the grisly flash estimate for May suggests the economy will slow... 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
