UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (6th Nov. 2025) The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Sep. 2025) Although wage growth picked up a notch in September, regular earnings growth remained lacklustre. That said, if we’re right that next year’s spring wage negotiations will result in a strong lift in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Waning enthusiasm for AI would weigh on Asian stock markets If today’s respite in stock markets doesn’t last, some tech-heavy ones in Asia would be particularly vulnerable to a deeper AI-related pull-back judging by their performance overnight. 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade still holding up amid tariffs After falling in Q2, growth in global goods trade looks to have picked up somewhat in Q3 on the back of strong Asian exports. The latest survey data point to a slowdown in global goods trade. But as... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Oct. 2025) The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget big but not “generational” The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026 When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025) When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
