US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2025) The huge narrowing of the trade deficit in April was largely driven by a steep drop in pharmaceutical product and gold bullion imports, reversing their earlier surge as tariff front-running ahead of... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Apr. 2025) The jump in the trade deficit to a record high in April was larger than expected as tariff front-running reversed with “Liberation Day” and Canadian exporters paused to make more of their output USMCA... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2025) With base pay growth on a new upswing, we think the Bank of Japan will restart its hiking cycle before long. 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada bides its time, but cuts still coming The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping its policy rate at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see the full impact of US trade policy on the economy. Nonetheless, the Bank... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Section 899 might not be so taxing on US bonds and equities We doubt Section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House of Representatives in May will have the big negative effects on US asset markets that some seem to fear, even if it remains... 4th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 2025) The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see what the full impact of uncertain US trade policy on the economy will... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update It’s only a matter of time before UK wage growth slows According to the measures of wage growth that we consider the most useful and the fundamentals of the recent easing in the demand for labour relative to the supply, it is only a matter of time before... 4th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2025) Although activity was off to a poor start in 2025, the persistent strength in unit labour cost growth will constrain the RBA’s ability to provide much policy support. 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weak outlook for global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity has weakened so far in Q2. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain subdued in most countries apart from in the US, where tariffs already seem to... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will look past minimum wage increase While this year’s minimum wage hike will be only slightly smaller than last year’s, it is unlikely to prevent a further slowdown in wage growth over the coming quarters. That said, with capacity... 3rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (May 2025) Although the RBA's easing cycle has further to run, it is unlikely to cut rates as far as markets are anticipating. 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US small caps can't catch a break To some extent, the persistent underperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities probably reflects lingering concerns about the effects of Donald Trump’s policies on the economy. But even if fears of a... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update UK civil service job cuts won't dent labour market much The suggestion that the Chancellor may be considering cutting 50,000 civil service job cuts wouldn’t weigh on employment growth much over the next few years. Only if the government were to cut public... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2025) April’s money and lending figures provided little indication that the US trade war and the deteriorating jobs market prevented consumers’ willingness to borrow and spend from rising. This supports our... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
