UK Economics Update Chancellor within a whisker of breaking her fiscal rule There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024) The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Nov) The US trade deficit widened again to $78.2bn in November, from $73.6bn, as imports rebounded by 3.4%, outpacing a 2.7% recovery in exports, with shipments in both directions recovering after the... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in the Halifax house price index in December is at odds with the chunky rise in the Nationwide measure and suggests that recent rises in mortgage rates started to weigh on the housing... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What next after Trudeau steps down? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader sets off a contest for who will lead the party into the election due by October, but which could happen much... 6th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec. 2024) Building on the November rebound, the further small rise in the ISM manufacturing index in December suggests the sector is starting the year in better shape after a tough 2024. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2024) November’s money and lending data suggests that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving ahead of the Budget hasn’t gone away. As a result, today’s release adds further downside risk to our... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with industrial weakness in December The manufacturing PMIs overstated the weakness of industrial activity in 2024 but, at face value, their decline throughout most of the world in December suggests that the sector has entered 2025 on a... 2nd January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our 2024 key calls hold up? 2024 was another difficult year for commercial real estate. Although the sector appears to have fared better than we expected, our key calls were broadly right in terms of direction and winners and... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions stabilise We forecast a 140,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December. Meanwhile, we expect the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings growth to be unchanged, at 4.2% and 4.0% respectively. 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2024) December’s better-than-expected 0.7% m/m increase in Nationwide house prices means that prices continued to gather momentum at the end of last year despite the rise in mortgage rates, rising by a... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian house price growth to remain weak in 2025 There was little festive cheer in Australia’s housing market last month, with house prices stagnating across the country’s eight capital cities. Given our view that the RBA has only limited room to... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix to lead the way Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in... 23rd December 2024 · 7 mins read
