US Economics Weekly Next Fed chair to inherit a roaring economy We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch next week, to see if Trump... 23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov 2025) The strong rebound in retail sales in November appears to mostly reflect a temporary boost from Black Friday deals rather than a more lasting pickup in consumer demand, given the 0.5% decline expected... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ reluctant to cap government bond yields The Bank of Japan unveiled today that it had discussed tweaking the planned reduction in its bond purchase plan in response to the huge sell-off triggered by PM Takaichi’s campaign pledge to suspend... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.75% by next year The BoJ turned more upbeat when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a risk that the next rate hike will come earlier than our current forecast of July. And despite the recent surge in... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) December’s unexpected rise in retail sales volumes wasn’t enough to prevent yet another disappointing “Golden Quarter” for the retail sector, with sales declining by 0.3% q/q in Q4 overall. And while... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jan. 26) The Bank of Japan sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a chance that it could raise rates earlier than our current forecast of July. The Bank’s decision to... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy continues to run hot We learned this week that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low in December. The strength of the labour market is a key reason to expect consumption growth to remain brisk in the... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (December 2025) With underlying inflation price pressures remaining firm, we expect the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle in the coming months. 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to leave rates unchanged throughout 2026 We think the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold again next week despite the soft data released since December’s meeting, given policymakers’ desire to gain more clarity over the future of... 22nd January 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The solid 0.3% m/m gains in real consumption in both October and November confirm that the government shutdown had very little impact on economic activity. Those gains slightly outpaced our prior... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Major central banks out of sync in 2026 Since December, investors’ year-end interest rate expectations have moved towards our own end-2026 policy rate forecasts for all major advanced economies. We think there is a bit further to go before... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2025) The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow and Starmer/Reeves’ political vulnerability casts doubt over whether... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2025) Given the renewed tightening in the labour market in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next month. 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
