US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent... 29th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cuts by 25bp amid looming 25% tariff threat With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a closer call were it not for the looming threat of tariffs. Admittedly, the Bank hinted that... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan. 2025.) With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a much closer call were it not for the looming threat of US tariffs. Any tariffs could hit... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed... 28th January 2025 · 16 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2024) The fall in durable goods orders in December was due to the volatile transport component, whereas core and underlying capital goods orders both rose. While real underlying capital goods shipments... 28th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Deep trouble for the US stock market? News that Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s AI Assistant has usurped US OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple’s App Store has dealt the US stock market a blow today, just a week after... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The 3.6% increase in new home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market, with sales up nearly 3% over 2024 as a whole. We expect new home... 27th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: What have we learned from Trump’s first week? President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s... 24th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US: Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The small rise in existing home sales in December reflects deals that came together in September and October, when mortgage rates hit a nadir of 6.2%, getting across the line. Given the recent selloff... 24th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
