Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027 The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re... 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buy versus rent dynamics favour apartment markets in the Midwest and New York State The large cost gap between buying and renting today underpins our upbeat national apartment demand forecast. Applying the same logic at the city level, demand in Midwestern and New York State metros... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The weaker-than-expected retail sales data for December won’t be enough to spoil the fourth quarter, with our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth still at 3.8% annualised. But, together with the... 10th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The latest data seem to confirm that global GDP growth slowed in Q4. But there are also several signs of encouragement, consistent with our forecast for global growth to stabilise at about 3% this... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Dec. 25) Although Australian households pared back spending at the end of last year, that doesn't take away from the bigger picture that the economy is running too hot for the RBA's liking. Accordingly, we... 9th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan’s snap elections answered Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has secured the largest victory for her LDP in post-war history in yesterday’s snap election. This Update answers the questions most frequently asked by clients. We will... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2025) Wage growth edged up a notch towards the end of last year, and we think it will gain further momentum in the months ahead. Accordingly, the Bank of Japan is likely to press ahead with additional... 9th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing could take a while to thaw The local real estate board data for January shows that the housing market is still struggling, and we probably can’t blame it all on the weather. Meanwhile, the large fall in the unemployment rate... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced... 6th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan 2026) The 0.3%-pt drop back in the unemployment rate to 6.5% last month came on the back of a large fall in the labour force and in spite of a 25,000 decline in employment. We expect this trend to continue... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2026) The 0.7% m/m rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in January suggests the housing market started 2026 on a stronger footing than the 0.3% m/m rise on the Nationwide index implied. We think... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will hike rates again in June The recent turmoil in Japan’s bond market seems to have prompted some soul-searching among policymakers in Tokyo and we remain convinced that a decisive LDP victory in the upcoming Lower House... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to follow up this week’s 25bp hike with additional policy tightening in the months ahead. Indeed, with growth set to accelerate further above potential this... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will the build-to-rent boom turn to bust? The boom in build-to-rent (BtR) housing starts to record highs, despite the immigration crackdown and accompanying fall in rents on new leases, reflects the significant expansion of government support... 5th February 2026 · 15 mins read
