UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The last major economic releases before the Budget next Wednesday paint a pretty grim picture with the government borrowing more than expected in October and retail sales falling sharply at the start... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Looser fiscal policy adds to case for BoJ tightening The large supplementary budget announced today includes generous energy subsidies that will push inflation below 2% early next year. However, by boosting underlying price pressures, looser fiscal... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures will abate before long The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to equivocate about the outlook for interest rates, given uncertainty over the extent of spare capacity in the economy. However, with wage pressures showing... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield will reach 2% next year The government indicated this week that it will loosen fiscal policy by around 1% of GDP in the upcoming supplementary budget. Coupled with PM Takaichi giving BoJ Governor Ueda a free hand on when to... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Oct. 25) With inflation excluding fresh food and energy remaining above 3%, it won’t be long before the Bank of Japan resumes its tightening cycle. 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep) The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (October 28-29) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Has the Sun Belt lost its shine? Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2025) Swings in gold trade were once more a key driver of movements in the trade balance in August, resulting in a $18.6bn narrowing in the deficit to $59.6bn. 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in CPI inflation from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October (CE, consensus and BoE forecasts all 3.6%) is the second softish inflation release in a row and could well prompt the Governor of... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2025) Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2025) October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Subdued global inflation masks regional variation We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with... 18th November 2025 · 18 mins read
