US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Dec) December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the Bank... 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jan. 2025) Although the muted 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices in January was slightly worse than expected, it is not too surprising given the rise in quoted mortgage rates at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural labour shortages point to more rate hikes The Tokyo CPI suggests that the Bank of Japan’s Board will need to revise up their inflation forecasts yet again at the May meeting. And with the expansion in employment running on fumes as the... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Dec. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Jan. 25) The end-month data rush vindicates the Bank’s decision to lift its policy rate last week and suggests that further tightening over the coming months is likely. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 RICS survey confirms US CRE recovery is on its way The Q4 RICS commercial property survey saw investment sentiment turn positive for the first time since 2022 and a shift in perceptions of cycle phase, with the majority now believing we have reached... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Revisions to sour image of buoyant labour market We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which would mark a slight acceleration from the recent average if we are right in assuming that there will be downward revision to past... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2024) The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little weaker than the consensus estimate at 2.6%, but expectations would have come down a little after the December advance economic indicators... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Does the weak economy create a case for cutting rates faster? The Bank of England will probably strike a balance between the recent weak news on activity and the stronger news on price pressures by cutting interest rates by a “gradual” 25 basis points (bps)... 30th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Dec. 2024) December’s money and lending figures suggest the downbeat economic outlook isn’t weighing on households borrowing and spending decisions too heavily. This provides some encouragement that the economy... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% today and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
