US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2025) The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Support for the auto sector must shift up a gear Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rapid housing rebound will keep RBA on the sidelines Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor's second Budget to be about as big as her first Reports that the Chancellor will leave herself with more headroom and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its productivity forecasts by more than we were anticipating suggest the... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug 2025) The shock 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in August is not quite as bad as it looks, given the role played by temporary factors and the accompanying upward revision to growth in July. Nonetheless, it provides... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October suggests that homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, potentially on property, as it... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Labour Market (Sep. 25) The September activity data suggest that the contraction in Q3 GDP may be milder than we had anticipated and the economy should return to growth this quarter. 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will wait until January before tightening again The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today and Governor Ueda indicated that the Bank wants to gather more information on the strength of pay hikes in next year’s spring wage negotiations... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Oct. 25) The Bank of Japan signaled continued concerns about the impact of higher US tariff when keeping policy settings unchanged today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the next rate hike will only... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts and ends QT, but further loosening not guaranteed The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected, with dissents in both directions, and Chair Jerome... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
