US Fed Watch Fed on hold as political attacks ramp up The data released since the FOMC’s December meeting have reduced the potency of both the hawks’ warnings about inflation risks and the doves’ warnings about labour market risks. This reduces the... 21st January 2026 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We see recent strength in AI-related business investment as the start of a multi-year capex boom, driving GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Despite the economy running hot and labour... 21st January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why is services inflation stickier in Europe than the US? Given comparatively weak economic conditions, it might seem surprising that services inflation has been stickier in Europe than in the US in recent months. But much of this reflects the delayed... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December makes it unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% on 5th February. But we still think that a fall in... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How would Japan respond to a further surge in yields? Should JGB yields continue to surge, PM Takaichi may be forced to offset some of the expansionary fiscal measures announced recently with tightening elsewhere. However, those moves may not be seen as... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms unlikely to slow down Trump The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update SCOTUS rulings pivotal for Trump’s second year President Donald Trump’s first year back in the Oval Office was more disruptive than we had expected, marked by attacks on the global trading order, the domestic institutional framework and even the... 20th January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2025) While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.50% at the next policy... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the... 19th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump’s Greenland tariffs would be another drag for the UK If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical manufacturers and in a worse-case scenario could reduce UK GDP... 19th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is PM Takaichi creating her own Liz Truss moment? Our base case remains that Japan will avoid a fiscal crisis as its public debt dynamics are more favourable than is widely understood. However, there are mounting risks that PM Takaichi will only rein... 19th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for fourth-quarter GDP looking weak The data released this week suggest that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter, although recent experience shows that the quarterly GDP by expenditure data could tell a different story. 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan. 2026) The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely... 16th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Wait for the SCOTUS tariff ruling continues The wait continues for the Supreme Court’s judgement on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-invoked tariffs. If those tariffs are ruled to be illegal, we think Trump will be able to replace a lot... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Dec 2025) While December’s industrial production figures were generally more positive than previous months’, the key takeaway when looking back on last year is that tariffs have not triggered any manufacturing... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
