US Fed Watch FOMC doves to prevail in contested vote We expect concerns over softening labour market conditions among the doves on the FOMC to win out next week, resulting in another 25bp cut. But in return, the more hawkish members are likely to secure... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada’s easing cycle over… for now The Bank of Canada is all but guaranteed to keep its policy rate on hold next week, although the weakness of domestic demand and fading core price pressures mean we still expect rates to eventually be... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2025) The small rise in industrial production in September and revisions to previous months’ data mean output was unchanged across the third quarter as a whole. With the timelier ISM manufacturing index... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade defying tariff headwinds World trade grew relatively strongly in Q3 and looks to have maintained this momentum at the start of Q4. Despite signs of weakness in some Asian economies’ exports in October, the region should... 3rd December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Nov 2025) The modest fall in the ADP payrolls measure in November, coming on the back of a similar message from the Fed’s Beige Book, should be enough to persuade the FOMC to vote for another cut next week... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hold for the foreseeable future With inflation showing signs of persistence, activity recovering, and the labour market holding its own, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to deliver a hawkish hold at its meeting next week... 3rd December 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q3 2025) Although activity lost a bit of momentum last quarter, we suspect growth will hover at around its trend rate in the year ahead. The upshot is that, although the RBA won’t cut rates any further, we... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in November provides further evidence that actual house prices have been more resilient to Budget uncertainty than some RICS sentiment indicators... 2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will bring rates close to neutral by 2027 The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation... 2nd December 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry muddling through in Q4 November’s manufacturing PMI surveys paint a picture of soft growth in both activity and prices for global industry, with global supply chains still showing no signs of stress from tariffs. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2025) The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely crippling it. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 25) The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Assessing data quality in advanced economies While the accuracy of some official economic data in the UK and US has deteriorated recently, the issue is mainly concentrated in labour market data and does not appear to be a problem in other... 1st December 2025 · 21 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2025) October’s money and lending figures suggest nervousness about forthcoming tax rises in the Budget on 26th November prompted households to become a bit more cautious with their borrowing and saving. 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Resilience of profits adds to case for tighter policy With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
