Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 24) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in December should add to the Bank’s confidence that it can resume rate hikes today and over the coming months. In December... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada Watch: Tariff uncertainty favours 25bp cut The recent pick-up in GDP growth and core inflation pressures could justify a pause from the Bank of Canada next week but, with tariffs clouding the economic outlook, we judge that the Governing... 22nd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily AI: shooting for the stars Donald Trump’s ringing endorsement of Stargate is another shot in the arm for Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early days of his second presidency, and supports our long-standing view that the S&P... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Non-US equities during Trump’s first year back in office We think Trump’s trade policies will weigh on equity returns outside of the US, making 2025 a year of muted returns for emerging market equities. But we think it will still be a decent year for stocks... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2024) Against a backdrop of slowing GDP growth and high interest rates, December’s overshoot in borrowing is further disappointing news for the Chancellor. That said, most of the overshoot was because of a... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What a Coalition victory would mean for Australia We suspect that a Coalition government would run slightly tighter fiscal policy than Labor, which in turn may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to loosen monetary policy a bit more aggressively... 22nd January 2025 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 21st January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov. 2024) While the further rise in regular private sector pay growth in November will cause the Bank of England some unease, it will take comfort from the continued loosening in labour market activity. We... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Mr Trump goes (back) to Washington President Donald Trump returned to the White House today with pen already in hand to sign what is expected to be close to 100 executive orders. That flurry of executive action will set the tone on... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Government spending may have saved the UK economy in Q4 We know that the economy flatlined or suffered a small contraction in Q4. But that would have been much worse if not for what appears to be a rise in government spending, which will play an important... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update US twin deficits a growing vulnerability The precarious nature of the outlook for the Federal budget deficit is well appreciated at this stage, but arguably the bigger long-term risk is the mounting current account deficit. With the primary... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
