Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Apr) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.6 in April, from 50.8, is another illustration that most firms are able to shrug off the tariff chaos. Admittedly, at 51.3, our weighted composite of the... 5th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Federal Election The Australian Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is cruising towards victory in yesterday’s federal election. Given that our forecasts assumed policy continuity, we are inclined to... 4th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Growth stronger than reported but weaker than believed The outsized surge in imports last quarter makes the negative Q1 GDP reading an inordinately poor reflection of the economy's strength. However, stripping out an artificially large jump in IT... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will... 2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Housing market adds to the downside risks to activity We suspect that the recent slowdown in house prices this year is temporary. But while it is not our base case, a weaker housing market for longer would add to the downside risks to our already below... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr 2025) The healthy 177,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April and unchanged unemployment rate will reassure the Fed that there is no need to be hasty in lowering interest rates when it meets next week. Given... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK rates to be cut slower but perhaps further than investors expect The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates from 4.50% to 4.25% on Thursday 8th May. But we think the markets have got ahead of themselves in expecting interest rates to be cut by... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Equities Update Did the stock market just send another false recession signal? Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan too downbeat about inflation outlook The Bank of Japan slashed its GDP growth forecasts this week, arguing that global trade tensions are weighing on sentiment of households and firms. While consumer confidence has indeed plunged... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2025) 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing relatively well insulated from Trump tariffs While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK... 1st May 2025 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025) March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
