US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Nov 2025) According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of 0.30% m/m over the... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Hawkish tilt at the BoE, but rate cuts to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Declining population weighing on unemployment The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Dec. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2025) Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be somewhat choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The further big fall in CPI inflation, from 3.6% in October to 3.2% in November, will surely be enough to prompt the Governor of the Bank of England to reach into his big bag tomorrow and give... 17th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Oct & Nov 2025) The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2025) Despite the continued cooling in the jobs market, total wage growth continues to ease only fairly gradually. But the Bank of England will take comfort from the more significant continued easing in its... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025) The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
