Canada Economics Update Bank tempers hike expectations amid stronger labour market The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected. While there was recognition from policymakers that the labour market had... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebounded in Nov after likely Oct slump Following a likely 60,000 slump in October, as more than 100,000 workers dropped off the federal payroll, we estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by 50,000 in November. We expect the unemployment... 10th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected, while acknowledging that the economic outlook has improved somewhat since... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS teases an improving labour market The JOLTS data for September and October show glimpses of a rosier labour market, with firms in tariff-affected sectors posting more jobs and layoffs concentrated in a couple of sectors. This chimes... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”? The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re... 9th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank’s next move be a hike? The risk that the Bank of Canada shifts course and begins hiking is one we had not focused on as closely until today’s stellar November Labour Force Survey. While money markets are now fully pricing... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing outcomes diverging amid tariff cocktail While the latest data show the manufacturing sector struggling as a whole, the patchwork nature of the tariff system means some industries are faring better than others. This divergence could be... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep 2025) The delayed September PCE data showed that monthly core price growth was only marginally above the target-consistent rate, with the annual core inflation rate edging back down to 2.8%. Real... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov. 2025) November’s much better-than-expected 53,600 rise in employment marks the third consecutive large consensus-beating gain, confirming that hiring has regained momentum after the initial tariff shock... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Minimum wage hike another headwind to employment The 4.1% rise in the minimum wage scheduled for April 2026 will support wage growth, particularly for workers on lower incomes, but by further raising businesses’ labour costs it will probably... 5th December 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2025) The stagnation in the Halifax measure of house prices in November sends a weaker signal than the Nationwide release earlier this week. But with prices having only fallen once in the last six months... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Oct. 25) The surge in household spending in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further. If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long. 4th December 2025 · 2 mins read
