US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Defence spending, tariffs and interest rate cuts Germany’s ability to announce a larger increase in defence spending and fund it by additional borrowing rather than spending cuts elsewhere shines yet another light on the UK’s tight fiscal position... 7th March 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2025) The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession. Some... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2025) The essentially unchanged level of employment in February was probably mostly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather during the survey reference week rather than the threat of US tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 2025) The small 0.1% m/m fall in Halifax house prices in February is at odds with the 0.4% m/m rise in the Nationwide measure and suggests the recent rise in mortgage rates and/or the weakness in the wider... 7th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Shunto bonanza points to more rate hikes Japan’s trade unions are requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did a year ago and we expect employers to comply. With inflation already on track to... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut again as economy stares into tariff abyss The recent upside surprises to GDP, employment and inflation are of little relevance given the toll that US tariffs could have on the economy. Even if those tariffs are soon rolled back, investment... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2025) The ballooning of the trade deficit to a record high of $131.4bn in January once again stemmed from a huge surge in imports as businesses rushed to fast-track orders before new country- and product... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan 2025) The huge increase in exports in January was in line with the timely advance US data released last week and implies US importers looked to front-run tariffs ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the US economy headed for recession? Although our forecast for first-quarter GDP growth is now down to -1.9% annualised, we still believe that, on balance, the US economy will escape recession and rebound in the second quarter, as the... 6th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2025) After the slew of weaker activity and survey data in recent weeks, the small rise in the ISM services index in February should provide some reassurance that the floor is not falling from under the... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
