US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Revisions to sour image of buoyant labour market We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which would mark a slight acceleration from the recent average if we are right in assuming that there will be downward revision to past... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2024) The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little weaker than the consensus estimate at 2.6%, but expectations would have come down a little after the December advance economic indicators... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: Does the weak economy create a case for cutting rates faster? The Bank of England will probably strike a balance between the recent weak news on activity and the stronger news on price pressures by cutting interest rates by a “gradual” 25 basis points (bps)... 30th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Dec. 2024) December’s money and lending figures suggest the downbeat economic outlook isn’t weighing on households borrowing and spending decisions too heavily. This provides some encouragement that the economy... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% today and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cuts by 25bp amid looming 25% tariff threat With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a closer call were it not for the looming threat of tariffs. Admittedly, the Bank hinted that... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Tariff shock to drive US-Europe inflation divergence Inflation has proved somewhat stickier than we had anticipated, but the outlook of lacklustre growth, softening labour markets, normalising supply conditions and falling energy costs is consistent... 29th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan. 2025.) With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a much closer call were it not for the looming threat of US tariffs. Any tariffs could hit... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2024) 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed... 28th January 2025 · 16 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2024) The fall in durable goods orders in December was due to the volatile transport component, whereas core and underlying capital goods orders both rose. While real underlying capital goods shipments... 28th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Deep trouble for the US stock market? News that Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s AI Assistant has usurped US OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app on Apple’s App Store has dealt the US stock market a blow today, just a week after... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The 3.6% increase in new home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market, with sales up nearly 3% over 2024 as a whole. We expect new home... 27th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
