Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2025) With underlying inflation inching closer towards the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about handing down a 25bp cut next month. And with activity still weak and the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: House prices to beat expectations in 2026 The stuttering jobs market and the softening outlook for wage growth means we now expect house prices to rise by only 2.0% in the year to Q4 2025 (3.5% previously). But our view that Bank Rate will... 29th July 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS static as firms await greater tariff certainty The JOLTS data for June show a labour market waiting in suspense for the Trump administration to settle on a final arsenal of country-specific tariffs. While the federal layoff rate remains roughly... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2025) The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s trade deal not doing much for its stock market Euro-zone equities have, in general, already given back much of their gains after this weekend’s trade deal between the US and the EU. And we don’t foresee a new wave of euro-zone exceptionalism. 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to weaken vs euro as UK-EZ rates converge The combination of some relatively hawkish signals from the ECB yesterday and some more soggy data out of the UK has sent the euro to its strongest level against sterling since late 2023. We think... 25th July 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: New trade deals shed light on final tariff landscape With the EU reportedly close to striking a trade deal similar to the one officials agreed with Japan this week, the final tariff landscape is becoming clearer. Both appear to have settled on a 15%... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Industry support ramps up as trade negotiations slow The recent ramp-up in support for auto and steel manufacturers suggests the federal government is serious about holding out for a better trade deal with the US, even if that means missing the August... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Up to now there has been only limited passthrough from tariffs into final consumer prices, but we still expect the impact to gradually mount in the second half of this year. Many retailers appear to... 25th July 2025 · 12 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jun. 2025) Ignore the large 9.3% m/m drop in durable goods orders in June, which reflects a reversal of May’s surge of aircraft orders from the Qatar Airways Boeing deal announced during President Trump's visit... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The disappointingly small rebound in retail sales in June supports our view that the economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 and means that the risks to our forecast for consumer spending to grow by 1.4%... 25th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s gradualism poses upside risks to rates The minutes of the RBA's July meeting showed that the Board remains reluctant to declare victory in the war on inflation – a sentiment reiterated by Governor Bullock in a speech this week. We suspect... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade deal strengthens case for further BoJ tightening Japan managed to secure a reduction in US vehicle tariffs with minimal concessions of its own. While that could eventually prompt Trump to renege on his promises, as things stand the trade deal has... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
