Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook The year that inflation falls back to 2% After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly ICT services still riding the AI boom The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2025) With the economy still contending with the drags from high interest rates, higher taxes and weak overseas demand, the surprise 0.1% m/m contraction in the economy in October (consensus forecast +0.1%... 12th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Balance to tip in favour of a rate cut We think the balance will tip in favour of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% on Thursday 18th December. But it will be close. And with Bank Rate now within the Bank’s 2-4% estimate of the neutral... 11th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2025) Despite three quarters of the survey responses being gathered after the Budget, November’s RICS survey suggests buyer sentiment fell further in November even though actual housing activity and prices... 11th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025) Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed softens blow of hawkish cut with asset purchase restart The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks influenced the accompanying policy statement, which notes that the FOMC will... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks on the Committee had a clear influence on the accompanying policy statement... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
