US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE March meetings and the policy outlook 19th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT Are inflation and labour market dynamics putting expectations for more Fed easing at risk? Does cooling inflation clear the way for the Bank of England to cut again?
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 26) With the January labour force survey confirming that the labour market is tightening rather than loosening as the RBA had anticipated, the Bank has more work to do. 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 18th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement Preview: Possible flashpoint for Starmer/Reeves The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade to beat consensus expectations (again) World goods trade grew by about 4.5% in 2025 – its highest rate since 2011, except for the pandemic rebound in 2021. And we expect it to expand by a consensus-beating 2.5% or so this year. Alongside... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026) Coming on the back of the further easing in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the decline in CPI inflation from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus 3.0%, CE 3.1%, BoE 2.9%) may be just... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to hold fire on rate hikes until 2027 The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Feb. 2026) Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long. 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2025) Although the pickup in wage growth last quarter was driven in part by one-off factors, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures will be slow to recede over the year ahead. Insofar as that... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in January lends support to our view that it will decline to 2.0% by the middle of the year, which is a faster pace of disinflation than the Bank of Canada... 17th February 2026 · 2 mins read
