Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” is a clear indication that a September rate cut is now the most likely outcome. Nevertheless, the Chair’s lingering caution suggests that either a very positive August Employment Report or a much more concerning set of price data could still trigger a delay.