Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but, as the shift in monetary policy begins to boost rate-sensitive spending, growth should reaccelerate in 2025 and beyond. The presidential election adds to the uncertainty. We are worried that tariffs and immigration curbs imposed in a second Trump administration could be stagflationary.