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US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23)

All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go above 5% for all-property. For offices, additional drivers will leave occupier demand structurally lower. Retail stands out as the best performing sector for the 2024-27 period.

At a metro level, the relative winners over the coming years will mostly be in the South, where all property types stand to benefit from stronger population and employment growth. The big losers will be the six major coastal markets and many West coast markets thanks to poor affordability, long commute times and growing crime rates.

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