Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the Budget and Spending Review on Wednesday 27th But our forecast that the economy will emerge from COVID-19 with less long term scarring than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects suggests the Chancellor will be able to cancel scheduled tax hikes and/or spending cuts before the 2024 election.
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