The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in October (consensus forecast 0.0%, CE forecast -0.2%) suggests that the economy may go nowhere again in Q4 or perhaps is in the mildest of mild recessions. That may nudge the Bank of England a little closer to cutting interest rates, although when leaving rates at 5.25% tomorrow the Bank will probably push back against the idea of near-term rate cuts.
Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed, ECB and Bank of England December decisions and the policy outlook for 2024 in an online briefing on Thursday, 14th December. Click here to register for the 20-minute session.
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