The news that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m in March and grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1 as a whole (consensus +0.1% q/q, Bank of England 0.0% q/q, CE +0.1% q/q) suggests that lower real household incomes and high interest rates, as well as the unusually wet weather, are dampening activity. There’s still no recession, but with the full drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt it is too soon to sound the all-clear.
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