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Shopping centres not out of the woods yet

Shopping centres were the hardest hit commercial property sector during the pandemic. The latest data hint that the sector may be past the worst. But the outlook remains clouded by the threat of online shopping and weak in-store retail spending. Commodities Drop-In (24 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): Our Commodities team will be exploring how the war in Ukraine is shaking up commodity markets, from oil to wheat, while tackling some of the big market questions – not least whether we’re in for 1970s-style oil supply shocks. Register here.
Pieter Du Preez Property Economist
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More from UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property Update

Student accommodation rent growth to stay solid

Student enrolment remained robust during the last couple of years and is likely to continue growing strongly over the next decade. But supply of purpose-built beds has grown less rapidly and the pipeline points to a continued lag against demand. This demand-supply imbalance will likely support solid rent growth over the coming years.

24 June 2022

UK Commercial Property Chart Book

Signs of a slowdown emerging

Annual all-property rental growth reached a five-year high in May, while returns rose to levels last seen in mid-1994. But signs of a slowdown also emerged, especially in the red-hot industrial sector, where capital value growth and total returns eased for the first time in almost two years. In addition, the recovery in retail and offices lost some steam, with monthly rental growth rates nudging lower. We expect the pace of growth will let up soon as yields start to stabilise and structural changes weigh on occupier demand. As such, we expect returns to cool to below 10% by end-2022.

22 June 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Will Manchester office rental growth outperform again?

After a more severe downturn in 2020, Manchester office rental growth has caught up with other regional cities in recent quarters. While employment growth and occupier activity may remain fairly weak, tight new supply dynamics should see Manchester office rents rising broadly in line with the average of other regional offices over the short term.

17 June 2022

More from Pieter Du Preez

UK Commercial Property Update

South East office rents unlikely to rebound in 2022

The South East jobs market turned a corner during the second half of 2021. But while occupier activity has picked up, vacancy has also risen. As a result of this, and the effects of economic headwinds and remote working, we only expect to see modest rental growth for South East offices in 2022-23.

10 March 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb.)

The construction PMI rose to its highest level in eleven months in February. Although encouraging, supply constraints remain a major impediment and input costs high, which we think will limit growth in the sector over the coming months. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re discussing Russian energy imports and Europe’s energy needs in this special 20-minute briefing on one of the big sticking points in the western response to the war in Ukraine. Register here.

4 March 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan.)

Net lending to property fell back in January, after reaching its highest level in 18 months in December. But overall net lending remained in positive territory, though we expect a number of challenges to limit any recovery over the next few months.

1 March 2022
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