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IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to total return expectations, which implies yields are now expected to see a larger rise this year. Total returns of 7.5% p.a. over 2024-28 for all-property are in line with our view, although we think those returns will be front-loaded in 2024 and then tail off as yields stabilise. The consensus office return forecasts have been downgraded and are now closer to our own view of returns of 5.6% p.a. over the next five years.

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