Prices of commercial real estate equities suggest capital values will see a strong recovery in the first few months of 2024. But with no prospect of yield compression and rental growth set to slow, we think that is overly optimistic. That said, a decline in risk-free rates does mean all-property values should bottom-out by the middle of the year and will then see a small recovery, ending 2024 up by around 1% y/y.
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