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Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023

With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its meeting on 23rd November. That aggressive pace of tightening will ultimately push the economy into recession and we still think that policy will be loosened by the end of next year.

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