OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina

The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the current deal will not make it to its end-2023 expiry date. Elsewhere, the US has confirmed that is in the process of reviewing its relationship with Saudi Arabia as, in an increasingly fractured world, the Kingdom seems to be tilting toward a China-led bloc. And finally, Saudi Arabia celebrated a historic victory over Argentina at the Football World Cup with a national holiday. There is a risk that this dents GDP growth in Q4, although there are reasons to think that the hit will be limited.

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