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Egypt: inflation on the way down, but upside risks remain

Data over the weekend showed that Egypt’s inflation rate slowed, confirming that September marked the peak, and our baseline scenario is that it will continue to drop back as we head into 2024. The main risk to our view is that there is a disorderly adjustment in the pound following next month’s election, leading to a fresh rise in inflation that requires even more aggressive monetary tightening from the central bank.

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