The fairly hawkish minutes to Banxico's last meeting, where it delivered a surprise 25bp hike, reaffirm our initial view that more tightening is in the pipeline. We now expect a further 125bp of hikes, to 5.50%, by Q1 2022 (previously 5.25%). Otherwise, new virus cases are now falling sharply in Chile and Uruguay which may be encouraging evidence that their rapid vaccine rollouts, which primarily use the Sinovac jab, are helping to quash infections.
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