The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for this year of 1.0%, which had until recently been above consensus, now look tilted to the upside. In the meantime, resilient activity data will add to the central bank’s view that interest rates shouldn’t be lowered for some time yet.
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