Tight-lipped MPC won’t need to resume rate hikes

The minutes of the MPC's April meeting - in which the repo rate was kept on hold at 6.50% - show that the majority of the panel is willing to resume policy tightening should the data warrant it. But we don't think they will. We have learnt since that meeting that inflation dropped sharply in March and the daily price data point to a further moderation so far in April. This reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is at an end.