India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases from Russia. But we doubt that India would make a wholehearted effort to wean itself off Russian oil. Domestically, it would not play well to be seen caving to Trump’s demands. In addition, Indian policymakers would be reluctant to upend generally cordial (and long-standing) relations with Russia.
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